PFSI — PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates PFSI Bearish with a Setup Score of 14, net conviction 21, actionability 9. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score14
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction21
Actionability9 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc

PennyMac Financial Services, Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the mortgage banking and investment management activities in the United States. The company operates through two segments, Production and Servicing. The Production segment is involved in the origination, acquisition, and sale of loans. This segment also sources residential conventional and government-insured or guaranteed mortgage loans through correspondent production, consu… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$59.90
Market Cap$3.19B
Float27.4M
Shares Outstanding52.0M
P/E (Forward)8.95
P/E (TTM)8.44
Price/Sales (TTM)0.96
vs. Analyst Target+47.9% to analyst PT
Profit Margin11.78%
Operating Margin (TTM)4.48%
Revenue (TTM)$3.33B
Earnings Growth (YoY)-83.90%
Dividend Rate1.2%
Analyst Target Price$88.57 (8 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $3.95B $1.65B $2.77B $2.28B
2021 $3.56B $1.00B $2.13B $1.40B
2022 $2.32B $476M $1.31B $739M
2023 $1.40B $145M $1.30B $710M
2024 $1.59B $311M $1.56B $473M
2025 $4.36B $501M $3.99B $1.58B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $883M $182M
Dec 2025 $1.18B $107M
Mar 2026 $545M $82.3M
Jun 2026 $497M $146M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership34.6%
Institutional Ownership66.6%
Short Float10.6%
% of All Funds Holding2.60%
Number of Funds Holding229

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$70.13Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$87.94Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$99.79Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$90.27Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$81.06Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$96.16Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$93.54Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$84.00 resistance 1.00x 2 months ago
$90.00 resistance 1.02x 4 months ago
$131.00 resistance 1.64x 8 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (53 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.58% -0.41% 45.28% 10.89% -25.18%
1 Day -0.28% -0.68% 47.17% 16.86% -33.25%
1 Week -0.47% -0.48% 45.28% 17.11% -36.14%
2 Weeks 0.46% -0.45% 49.06% 23.88% -38.54%
1 Month 1.79% 2.05% 59.62% 27.53% -39.43%

Next earnings: October 20, 2026 (9 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan-3.9%30.8%13
Feb0.2%53.8%13
Mar-4.5%15.4%13
Apr1.6%46.2%13
May0.7%38.5%13
Jun1.9%50.0%14
Jul2.6%64.3%14
Aug5.6%57.1%14
Sep-1.1%50.0%14
Oct0.9%69.2%13
Nov6.8%84.6%13
Dec2.4%46.2%13

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.06% 49.0% 633
Tuesday 0.12% 48.8% 695
Wednesday 0.14% 50.4% 690
Thursday 0.03% 49.5% 677
Friday 0.08% 49.4% 676

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 66.6%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 34.6%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings23
Net Value-$20.9M
Net Shares Change-110,281
% of Float-0.4%
C-Suite Filings21
Clusters Detected3

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Jones Doug Director, President & CMBO -$5.9M 3 3 sell
MCCALLION ANNE -$3.3M 1 1 sell
SPECTOR DAVID Chairman & CEO -$1.9M 2 1 sell
Hendry Gregory L MD, Chief Accounting Officer -$424,870.8 1 1 sell
STARK DEREK Chief Legal Officer -$341,665.22 2 N/A
Kinsella Patrick +$200,587.5 1 1 buy

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-10-24 – 2025-11-07 5 4 -$8.4M 4 C-suite
2025-11-12 – 2025-11-26 4 3 -$7.1M 4 C-suite
2026-02-13 – 2026-02-26 4 4 -$1.6M 3 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-02-13 Kinsella Patrick +$200,587.5 Transaction at $89.15, now -32.8%
2025-11-26 Jones Doug Director, President & CMBO -$2.7M Transaction at $132.63, now -54.8%
2025-11-12 Jones Doug Director, President & CMBO -$2.7M Transaction at $69.42, now -13.7%
2025-12-19 Hendry Gregory L MD, Chief Accounting Officer -$424,870.8 Transaction at $71.46, now -16.2%
2025-11-07 Jones Doug Director, President & CMBO -$495,749.58 Transaction at $68.69, now -12.8%
2025-10-27 SPECTOR DAVID Chairman & CEO -$1,458.8 Transaction at $128.06, now -53.2%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc (PFSI) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for PFSI on Trend Edge →