PEGA — Pegasystems Inc

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates PEGA Bearish with a Setup Score of 41, net conviction 31, actionability 55. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score41
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction31
Actionability55 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Pegasystems Inc

Pegasystems Inc. develops, markets, licenses, hosts, and supports enterprise software in the United States, rest of the Americas, the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. It provides Pega Infinity, a software portfolio comprising of Pega Customer Decision Hub, a real-time AI-powered decision engine, which can predict a customer's behavior and recommend the next best action to take across channels in real-… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$34.00
Market Cap$5.53B
Float85.9M
Shares Outstanding164.4M
P/E (Forward)12.03
P/E (TTM)19.10
Price/Sales (TTM)3.18
vs. Analyst Target+26.5% to analyst PT
Profit Margin18.66%
Operating Margin (TTM)4.60%
Revenue (TTM)$1.74B
Earnings Growth (YoY)-52.90%
Dividend Rate0.1%
Analyst Target Price$43.00 (14 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $1.02B -$61.4M $707M -$84.2M
2021 $1.21B -$63.0M $875M -$95.4M
2022 $1.32B -$346M $949M -$119M
2023 $1.43B $67.8M $1.05B $137M
2024 $1.50B $99.2M $1.11B $185M
2025 $1.75B $393M $1.32B $308M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $381M $43.4M
Dec 2025 $504M $235M
Mar 2026 $430M $32.8M
Jun 2026 $421M $13.3M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership47.8%
Institutional Ownership61.6%
Short Float15.5%
% of All Funds Holding4.93%
Number of Funds Holding434

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$31.52Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$41.41Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$45.58Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$35.54Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$41.13Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$46.14Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$38.37Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$36.90 resistance 1.24x 1 months ago
$43.00 resistance 1.46x 3 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (118 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 1.47% 1.26% 61.86% 28.65% -19.68%
1 Day 2.81% 1.57% 61.86% 48.84% -21.38%
1 Week 3.16% 0.37% 53.39% 101.25% -30.47%
2 Weeks 2.09% 0.72% 51.69% 66.47% -41.02%
1 Month 3.09% 2.73% 55.56% 63.19% -44.53%

Next earnings: October 20, 2026 (55 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan7.5%56.7%30
Feb3.2%60.0%30
Mar-2.3%43.3%30
Apr1.5%40.0%30
May9.2%63.3%30
Jun3.3%63.3%30
Jul0.3%63.3%30
Aug-0.8%46.7%30
Sep1.8%50.0%30
Oct1.6%56.7%30
Nov0.3%53.3%30
Dec0.5%46.7%30

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.05% 46.7% 1425
Tuesday 0.18% 49.1% 1555
Wednesday 0.23% 48.9% 1553
Thursday 0.09% 50.2% 1523
Friday 0.01% 48.3% 1515

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 61.6%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 47.8%

Founder-led management: Alan Trefler (Founder and Chief Executive Officer)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings36
Net Value-$38.2M
Net Shares Change-519,580
% of Float-0.6%
C-Suite Filings35
Clusters Detected5

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
STILLWELL KENNETH COO, CFO -$2.5M 2 2 sell
Akgonul Rifat Kerim Chief Product Officer -$1.1M 3 3 sell
Trefler Leon Chief of Clients and Markets -$299,858.5 1 1 sell
KOUNINIS EFSTATHIOS A SVP, Chief Accounting Officer -$178,950.85 4 4 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-09-11 – 2025-09-19 4 3 -$3.0M 3 C-suite
2025-10-23 – 2025-11-05 6 4 -$10.9M 6 C-suite
2025-12-09 – 2025-12-19 3 3 -$7.2M 3 C-suite
2026-02-17 – 2026-03-03 4 3 -$2.1M 4 C-suite
2026-03-12 – 2026-03-19 5 4 -$3.5M 5 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-08-11 KOUNINIS EFSTATHIOS A SVP, Chief Accounting Officer -$56,244 Transaction at $32.70, now +4.0%
2026-06-18 KOUNINIS EFSTATHIOS A SVP, Chief Accounting Officer -$24,235.35 Transaction at $32.31, now +5.2%
2026-06-02 KOUNINIS EFSTATHIOS A SVP, Chief Accounting Officer -$55,591.5 Transaction at $35.80, now -5.0%
2026-03-12 STILLWELL KENNETH COO, CFO -$2.0M Transaction at $44.81, now -24.1%
2026-03-12 Trefler Leon Chief of Clients and Markets -$299,858.5 Transaction at $44.76, now -24.0%
2026-03-03 Akgonul Rifat Kerim Chief Product Officer -$331,743.14 Transaction at $43.79, now -22.4%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Pegasystems Inc (PEGA) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for PEGA on Trend Edge →