PAYX — Paychex Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates PAYX Bearish with a Setup Score of 49, net conviction 43, actionability 55. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score49
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction43
Actionability55 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Paychex Inc

Paychex, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides human capital management solutions (HCM) for payroll, employee benefits, human resources (HR), and insurance services for small to medium-sized businesses in the United States, Europe, and India. It offers payroll processing services; payroll tax administration services; employee payment services; and regulatory compliance services. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$107.54
Market Cap$37.79B
Float321.1M
Shares Outstanding355.6M
P/E (Forward)17.89
P/E (TTM)21.77
Price/Sales (TTM)9.52
vs. Analyst Target-0.9% to analyst PT
Profit Margin26.63%
Operating Margin (TTM)38.33%
Revenue (TTM)$3.97B
Earnings Growth (YoY)42.60%
Dividend Rate4.8%
Analyst Target Price$106.57 (18 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2021 $4.06B $1.10B $2.79B $1.66B
2022 $4.61B $1.39B $3.26B $2.05B
2023 $5.01B $1.56B $3.55B $2.26B
2024 $5.28B $1.69B $3.80B $2.43B
2025 $5.57B $1.66B $4.03B $2.49B
2026 $6.51B $1.76B $4.84B $2.51B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Aug 2025 $1.54B $384M
Nov 2025 $1.56B $395M
Feb 2026 $1.81B $560M
May 2026 $1.61B $421M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership10.4%
Institutional Ownership85.8%
Short Float6.4%
% of All Funds Holding17.12%
Number of Funds Holding1,407

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$99.26Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$103.46Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$124.18Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$122.35Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$102.53Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$124.01Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$123.14Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$112.00 resistance 1.15x 5 months ago
$116.00 resistance 1.13x 7 months ago
$126.00 resistance 1.33x 8 months ago
$138.00 resistance 1.42x 9 months ago
$157.00 resistance 1.28x 12 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (122 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.04% 0.04% 50.00% 7.69% -6.10%
1 Day 0.04% 0.26% 52.46% 9.91% -8.31%
1 Week 0.80% 0.33% 52.46% 21.49% -9.13%
2 Weeks 0.87% 0.71% 56.56% 18.77% -14.98%
1 Month 1.26% 1.72% 57.02% 25.84% -24.89%

Next earnings: September 29, 2026 (79 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan0.2%51.2%43
Feb0.4%62.8%43
Mar2.1%60.5%43
Apr0.9%44.2%43
May1.4%53.5%43
Jun1.9%58.1%43
Jul0.7%57.1%42
Aug1.0%47.6%42
Sep4.3%69.8%43
Oct2.2%62.8%43
Nov1.9%58.1%43
Dec1.6%53.5%43

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.04% 47.3% 2039
Tuesday 0.03% 45.1% 2215
Wednesday 0.12% 46.6% 2212
Thursday 0.16% 48.1% 2171
Friday 0.05% 47.5% 2159

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 85.8%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 10.4%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings8
Net Value-$5.2M
Net Shares Change32,371
% of Float0.0%
C-Suite Filings4
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
MUCCI MARTIN -$32.9M 1 1 sell
Gibson John B President and CEO -$4.1M 1 1 sell
Schrader Robert L. Sr. VP, CFO -$718,576.12 1 1 sell
Simmons Christopher C VP, Controller & Treasurer -$401,209.54 1 1 sell
TUCCI JOSEPH M -$383,938.25 1 1 sell
DOODY JOSEPH +$98,760 1 1 buy
BONADIO TOM +$98,498 1 1 buy
Roaldsen Elizabeth Sr. Vice President -$41,310 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-07-11 – 2025-07-17 4 4 -$38.1M 3 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-06-30 TUCCI JOSEPH M -$383,938.25 Transaction at $85.65, now +25.6%
2026-05-15 Roaldsen Elizabeth Sr. Vice President -$41,310 Transaction at $90.00, now +19.5%
2026-02-05 DOODY JOSEPH +$98,760 Transaction at $98.76, now +8.9%
2026-02-05 BONADIO TOM +$98,498 Transaction at $98.50, now +9.2%
2025-07-17 Schrader Robert L. Sr. VP, CFO -$718,576.12 Transaction at $140.66, now -23.5%
2025-07-17 Gibson John B President and CEO -$4.1M Transaction at $141.30, now -23.9%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Paychex Inc (PAYX) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for PAYX on Trend Edge →