PAGS — PagSeguro Digital Ltd

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates PAGS Bearish with a Setup Score of 29, net conviction 20, actionability 42. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score29
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction20
Actionability42 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About PagSeguro Digital Ltd

PagSeguro Digital Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides financial and payment solutions for consumers, individual entrepreneurs, micro-merchants, and small and medium-sized companies in Brazil and internationally. The company provides digital banking solutions, including bill payments, deposits, top-ups, debt management, direct deposits, pix, tax collections, tax collections, wire transfer, and ATM withdrawal; cards, such as debit, credi… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$9.03
Market Cap$2.33B
Float143.4M
Shares Outstanding155.2M
P/E (Forward)6.20
P/E (TTM)5.94
Price/Sales (TTM)0.12
vs. Analyst Target+28.3% to analyst PT
Profit Margin10.86%
Operating Margin (TTM)36.20%
Revenue (TTM)$19.80B
Earnings Growth (YoY)10.10%
Dividend Rate1.1%
Analyst Target Price$11.59 (17 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $6.69B $1.29B $2.91B $2.11B
2021 $10.30B $1.17B $4.52B $3.05B
2022 $15.16B $1.50B $7.69B $6.02B
2023 $15.68B $1.65B $7.55B $6.64B
2024 $18.33B $2.12B $8.79B $7.71B
2025 $19.36B $2.08B $9.79B $9.40B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $4.92B $554M
Dec 2025 $5.30B $510M
Mar 2026 $4.69B $535M
Jun 2026 $2.06B $549M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership3.2%
Institutional Ownership75.6%
Short Float12.8%
% of All Funds Holding2.83%
Number of Funds Holding249

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$9.08Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$9.77Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$9.31Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$9.80Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$9.91Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$9.32Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$9.90Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$12.80 resistance 1.92x 23 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (35 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.18% 0.62% 60.00% 11.25% -14.56%
1 Day -0.44% 0.05% 51.43% 14.31% -23.78%
1 Week -4.94% -4.70% 31.43% 22.41% -37.73%
2 Weeks -4.52% -3.77% 41.18% 27.64% -35.23%
1 Month -4.80% -5.59% 29.41% 39.47% -40.96%

Next earnings: October 30, 2026 (64 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan4.6%62.5%8
Feb2.1%44.4%9
Mar-0.9%55.6%9
Apr1.2%33.3%9
May4.6%66.7%9
Jun-0.9%44.4%9
Jul4.4%66.7%9
Aug7.9%75.0%8
Sep-8.1%12.5%8
Oct-10.1%12.5%8
Nov0.1%37.5%8
Dec-1.8%50.0%8

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.13% 51.7% 406
Tuesday 0.19% 47.7% 444
Wednesday 0.13% 52.0% 440
Thursday -0.29% 48.2% 434
Friday 0.17% 50.0% 432

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 75.6%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 3.2%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings4
Net Value-$1.1M
Net Shares Change174,340
% of Float0.1%
C-Suite Filings2
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Frias Luis +$5.0M 1 1 buy
Magnani Alexandre Mr -$2.3M 1 1 sell
Dutra da Silva Ricardo Principal Executive Officer -$1.1M 2 2 sell

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-07-16 Dutra da Silva Ricardo Principal Executive Officer -$683,258.328 Transaction at $9.21, now -2.0%
2026-07-23 Dutra da Silva Ricardo Principal Executive Officer -$462,750 Transaction at $9.26, now -2.4%
2026-03-31 Frias Luis +$5.0M Transaction at $9.96, now -9.4%
2026-04-21 Magnani Alexandre Mr -$2.3M Transaction at $11.26, now -19.8%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for PagSeguro Digital Ltd (PAGS) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for PAGS on Trend Edge →