PAGS — PagSeguro Digital Ltd

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates PAGS Bearish with a Setup Score of 19, net conviction 26, actionability 14. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score19
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction26
Actionability14 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About PagSeguro Digital Ltd

PagSeguro Digital Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides financial and payment solutions for consumers, individual entrepreneurs, micro-merchants, and small and medium-sized companies in Brazil and internationally. The company provides digital banking solutions, including bill payments, deposits, top-ups, debt management, direct deposits, pix, tax collections, tax collections, wire transfer, and ATM withdrawal; cards, such as debit, credi… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$9.25
Market Cap$2.52B
Float145.3M
Shares Outstanding159.1M
P/E (Forward)6.20
P/E (TTM)6.38
Price/Sales (TTM)0.13
vs. Analyst Target+29.9% to analyst PT
Profit Margin10.79%
Operating Margin (TTM)37.33%
Revenue (TTM)$19.81B
Earnings Growth (YoY)12.20%
Dividend Rate1.0%
Analyst Target Price$12.01 (17 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $6.69B $1.29B $2.91B $2.11B
2021 $10.30B $1.17B $4.52B $3.05B
2022 $15.16B $1.50B $7.69B $6.02B
2023 $15.68B $1.65B $7.55B $6.64B
2024 $18.33B $2.12B $8.79B $7.71B
2025 $19.36B $2.08B $9.79B $9.40B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $4.89B $537M
Sep 2025 $4.92B $554M
Dec 2025 $5.30B $510M
Mar 2026 $4.69B $535M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership3.5%
Institutional Ownership1.6%
Short Float12.8%
% of All Funds Holding2.94%
Number of Funds Holding242

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$9.12Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$9.81Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$9.13Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$9.97Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$9.93Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$9.17Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$9.91Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$12.80 resistance 1.92x 22 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (34 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.18% 0.69% 58.82% 11.25% -14.56%
1 Day -0.40% 0.20% 52.94% 14.31% -23.78%
1 Week -4.98% -4.77% 32.35% 22.41% -37.73%
2 Weeks -4.52% -3.77% 41.18% 27.64% -35.23%
1 Month -4.66% -4.56% 30.30% 39.47% -40.96%

Next earnings: August 13, 2026 (32 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan4.6%62.5%8
Feb2.1%44.4%9
Mar-0.9%55.6%9
Apr1.2%33.3%9
May4.6%66.7%9
Jun-0.9%44.4%9
Jul4.1%62.5%8
Aug7.9%75.0%8
Sep-8.1%12.5%8
Oct-10.1%12.5%8
Nov0.1%37.5%8
Dec-1.8%50.0%8

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.14% 51.6% 399
Tuesday 0.19% 48.1% 437
Wednesday 0.14% 52.4% 433
Thursday -0.30% 48.2% 427
Friday 0.18% 50.4% 425

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 1.6%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 3.5%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings2
Net Value+N/A
Net Shares Change298,500
% of Float0.2%
C-Suite Filings0
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Frias Luis +$5.0M 1 1 buy
Magnani Alexandre Mr -$2.3M 1 1 sell

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-04-21 Magnani Alexandre Mr -$2.3M Transaction at $11.26, now -17.9%
2026-03-31 Frias Luis +$5.0M Transaction at $9.96, now -7.2%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for PagSeguro Digital Ltd (PAGS) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for PAGS on Trend Edge →