Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.
Trend Edge Setup Score
Trend Edge rates ORLY Bullish with a Setup Score of 0, net conviction 21, actionability 0. How the Setup Score works →
Total Setup Score
0
Directional Bias
Bullish
Net Conviction
21
Actionability
0 (no mans land)
Key signals behind this score
80wk Uptrend — trend only (sma 93.40 vs px 85.12)
200wk Uptrend — rising+above (sma 76.36 vs px 85.12)
Seasonal Tailwind — july med 4.3% (mag 2/3) · posClose 63.64% (rel 1/3) · n33 ×1 = 6.3
Founder-Led — founder/CEO led
Earnings Tailwind — ER in 11.246d · w1 med 0.9% (mag 1/3) · winRate 56.2% (rel 1/3) · n121
About O’Reilly Automotive Inc
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer and supplier of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment, and accessories in the United States, Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Canada. The company offers new and remanufactured automotive hard parts and maintenance items, such as alternators, batteries, brake system components, belts, chassis parts, driveline parts, engine parts, fuel pumps, hoses, starter… Read full Trend Edge analysis →
Sector: Consumer Cyclical
Industry: Auto Parts
Exchange: NASDAQ
IPO Date: April 22, 1993
Headquarters: 233 South Patterson Avenue, Springfield, MO, United States, 65802-2298
Founder-Led: Yes — Charles O'Reilly (Executive Vice Chairman)
Key Metrics
Current Price
$86.28
Market Cap
$70.54B
Float
821.0M
Shares Outstanding
828.7M
P/E (Forward)
26.39
P/E (TTM)
27.73
Price/Sales (TTM)
3.87
vs. Analyst Target
+27.8% to analyst PT
Profit Margin
14.30%
Operating Margin (TTM)
18.45%
Revenue (TTM)
$18.21B
Earnings Growth (YoY)
16.10%
Dividend Rate
None
Analyst Target Price
$110.25 (28 analysts)
Financial History
Annual Revenue & Earnings History
Year
Revenue
Net Income
Gross Profit
EBITDA
2020
$11.60B
$1.75B
$6.09B
$2.74B
2021
$13.33B
$2.16B
$7.02B
$3.25B
2022
$14.41B
$2.17B
$7.38B
$3.31B
2023
$15.81B
$2.35B
$8.10B
$3.19B
2024
$16.71B
$2.39B
$8.55B
$3.73B
2025
$17.78B
$2.54B
$9.17B
$3.99B
Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income
Quarter
Revenue
Net Income
Jun 2025
$4.53B
$669M
Sep 2025
$4.71B
$726M
Dec 2025
$4.41B
$605M
Mar 2026
$4.56B
$604M
Ownership & Float
Insider Ownership
0.5%
Institutional Ownership
89.2%
Short Float
3.0%
% of All Funds Holding
18.69%
Number of Funds Holding
1,536
Current Moving Averages
Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.
Timeframe
SMA
Value
Trend Context
Weekly
10-Week SMA
$89.43
Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly
40-Week SMA
$93.76
Medium-term trend
Weekly
80-Week SMA
$93.41
Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly
200-Week SMA
$76.36
Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly
10-Month SMA
$93.66
Near-term monthly trend
Monthly
20-Month SMA
$93.72
Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly
40-Month SMA
$81.01
Secular monthly trend
Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance
Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume
creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative
volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.
Price Level
Type
Volume Ratio
Age
$100.00
resistance
1.11x
1 months ago
$101.00
resistance
1.02x
6 months ago
$70.00
support
1.05x
23 months ago
$64.00
support
1.13x
24 months ago
Historical Earnings Reactions (121 events)
Timeframe
Avg Return
Median
Win Rate
Best
Worst
Gap
0.23%
0.00%
46.28%
11.98%
-8.29%
1 Day
0.63%
0.23%
53.72%
13.69%
-12.62%
1 Week
1.03%
0.86%
56.20%
23.91%
-15.39%
2 Weeks
1.80%
1.40%
58.68%
29.55%
-15.97%
1 Month
2.88%
2.55%
61.67%
30.43%
-20.16%
Next earnings: July 29, 2026 (18 days away)
Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns
Monthly Seasonality
Month
Avg Return
Win Rate
Samples
Jan
-1.5%
48.5%
33
Feb
2.9%
57.6%
33
Mar
1.7%
60.6%
33
Apr
3.5%
63.6%
33
May
0.5%
44.1%
34
Jun
2.0%
67.6%
34
Jul
3.5%
63.6%
33
Aug
-0.3%
42.4%
33
Sep
1.7%
54.5%
33
Oct
4.6%
57.6%
33
Nov
2.4%
66.7%
33
Dec
2.5%
54.5%
33
Day-of-Week Tendencies
Day
Avg Return
Win Rate
Samples
Monday
0.07%
50.6%
1571
Tuesday
0.12%
50.3%
1716
Wednesday
0.09%
50.7%
1714
Thursday
0.18%
50.1%
1681
Friday
0.02%
50.4%
1673
Top Institutional Holders
Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.
Total institutional ownership: 89.2%
Insider Transactions — Smart Summary
Total insider ownership: 0.5%
Founder-led management: Charles O'Reilly (Executive Vice Chairman)
Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for O’Reilly Automotive Inc
(ORLY) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model.
The analysis covers five layers:
technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum,
volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals),
qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics),
insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions),
share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and
fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).
AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit,
stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward.
Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup,
AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.