NXDT — NexPoint Strategic Opportunities Fund

✨ Hidden Gem Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates NXDT Bullish with a Setup Score of 39, net conviction 24, actionability 62. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score39
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction24
Actionability62 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About NexPoint Strategic Opportunities Fund

NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust is an externally advised, publicly traded, diversified real estate investment trust. It focuses on the acquisition, development, and management of opportunistic and value-add investments throughout the United States across multiple sectors where NexPoint and its affiliates have operational expertise. NXDT is externally advised by NexPoint Real Estate Advisors X, L.P. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$5.20
Market Cap$272M
Float41.8M
Shares Outstanding51.7M
Price/Sales (TTM)3.44
Profit Margin-143.54%
Operating Margin (TTM)15.07%
Revenue (TTM)$78.8M
Dividend Rate0.6%

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 -$114M -$121M -$114M -$121M
2021 $257M $250M $257M $250M
2022 $91.0M $48.9M $84.5M $58.9M
2023 -$59.4M -$117M -$75.3M -$101M
2024 $37.8M -$46.7M $9.4M -$39.6M
2025 $92.0M -$125M $7.8M -$109M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 -$24.3M -$44.1M
Sep 2025 $17.5M -$12.3M
Dec 2025 $19.4M -$35.5M
Mar 2026 $20.1M -$21.3M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership28.1%
Institutional Ownership51.4%
Short Float1.7%
% of All Funds Holding1.37%
Number of Funds Holding113

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$4.97Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$4.23Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$4.27Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$7.00Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$4.50Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$4.46Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$6.08Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$3.80 support 1.85x 5 months ago
$2.90 support 2.05x 6 months ago
$6.10 resistance 1.03x 17 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (19 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.14% 0.16% 52.63% 1.84% -6.29%
1 Day -0.77% 0.14% 52.63% 1.80% -6.92%
1 Week -2.50% -2.46% 26.32% 4.91% -11.13%
2 Weeks -1.46% -1.71% 36.84% 7.32% -13.37%
1 Month 0.36% -1.31% 44.44% 53.24% -17.73%

Next earnings: August 13, 2026 (33 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan2.1%65.0%20
Feb-1.5%45.0%20
Mar-3.6%45.0%20
Apr2.4%65.0%20
May0.1%50.0%20
Jun1.3%55.0%20
Jul-1.3%35.0%20
Aug-1.8%45.0%20
Sep-3.2%40.0%20
Oct-1.5%45.0%20
Nov-0.7%55.0%20
Dec0.8%45.0%20

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.07% 46.9% 945
Tuesday 0.07% 49.4% 1034
Wednesday -0.09% 47.7% 1034
Thursday -0.02% 49.8% 1014
Friday 0.00% 50.1% 1009

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 51.4%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 28.1%

Founder-led management: James Dondero (Chairman & President)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings14
Net Value+$276,848.7
Net Shares Change86,712
% of Float0.2%
C-Suite Filings2
Clusters Detected2

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
NORRIS DUSTIN DAVID Executive Vice President +$262,948.7 1 1 buy
LAFFER ARTHUR B +$42,043.08 1 2 buy
Mitts Brian -$17,359.32 3 3 sell
Richards Paul Chief Financial Officer, Executive VP-Finance, Treasurer and Assistant Secretary +$13,900 1 1 buy
Swain Carol +N/A 2 2 sell
Constantino Edward N. +N/A 2 2 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-03-24 – 2026-04-07 5 4 -$17,359.32
2026-06-12 – 2026-06-18 3 3 +N/A

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-05-22 NORRIS DUSTIN DAVID Executive Vice President +$262,948.7 Transaction at $4.90, now +6.1%
2026-06-18 Mitts Brian +N/A N/A
2026-06-12 Swain Carol +N/A N/A
2026-06-12 Constantino Edward N. +N/A N/A
2025-12-08 LAFFER ARTHUR B +$42,043.08 Transaction at $2.81, now +85.0%
2025-11-20 Richards Paul Chief Financial Officer, Executive VP-Finance, Treasurer and Assistant Secretary +$13,900 Transaction at $2.78, now +87.1%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for NexPoint Strategic Opportunities Fund (NXDT) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for NXDT on Trend Edge →