CTO — CTO Realty Growth Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates CTO Bullish with a Setup Score of 52, net conviction 44, actionability 62. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score52
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction44
Actionability62 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About CTO Realty Growth Inc

CTO Realty Growth, Inc. is a publicly traded real estate investment trust. The firm owns and operates a portfolio of high-quality, retail-based properties located primarily in higher growth markets in the United States. CTO also externally manages and owns a meaningful interest in Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc., a publicly traded net lease REIT. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$22.00
Market Cap$824M
Float36.0M
Shares Outstanding37.5M
P/E (Forward)121.95
P/E (TTM)15.93
Price/Sales (TTM)5.11
vs. Analyst Target+11.8% to analyst PT
Profit Margin32.63%
Operating Margin (TTM)25.43%
Revenue (TTM)$161M
Earnings Growth (YoY)1200.10%
Dividend Rate1.5%
Analyst Target Price$24.60 (7 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $56.4M $78.5M $41.2M $24.5M
2021 $70.3M $29.9M $47.8M $55.8M
2022 $82.3M $3.2M $59.5M $46.6M
2023 $109M $5.5M $78.9M $71.7M
2024 $125M -$2.0M $91.3M $75.0M
2025 $150M $10.1M -$8.4M $97.5M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $37.8M $3.0M
Dec 2025 $38.3M $28.3M
Mar 2026 $41.2M $6.2M
Jun 2026 $43.8M $15.1M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership4.1%
Institutional Ownership68.1%
Short Float2.9%
% of All Funds Holding2.48%
Number of Funds Holding218

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$21.83Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$19.82Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$18.67Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$18.21Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$19.85Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$18.86Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$18.32Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$20.40 support 1.31x 1 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (93 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.02% -0.06% 41.94% 5.03% -3.60%
1 Day 0.09% 0.00% 49.46% 12.61% -6.78%
1 Week -0.43% -0.44% 46.24% 10.75% -27.49%
2 Weeks -0.12% 0.16% 51.61% 13.53% -15.10%
1 Month 0.77% 0.65% 54.35% 36.26% -33.28%

Next earnings: October 16, 2026 (52 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan0.0%41.3%46
Feb0.8%43.5%46
Mar3.5%60.9%46
Apr1.5%48.9%47
May0.0%38.3%47
Jun0.8%42.6%47
Jul0.5%53.2%47
Aug1.6%45.7%46
Sep-0.5%39.1%46
Oct-1.7%37.0%46
Nov1.4%54.3%46
Dec1.7%54.3%46

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.04% 33.5% 2212
Tuesday 0.11% 36.0% 2401
Wednesday 0.01% 34.2% 2399
Thursday 0.00% 33.1% 2353
Friday 0.18% 37.7% 2337

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 68.1%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 4.1%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings7
Net Value+$190,535.75
Net Shares Change11,550
% of Float0.0%
C-Suite Filings7
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Albright John P PRESIDENT & CEO +$134,962.8 3 3 buy
Mays Philip SVP, CFO & Treasurer +$16,606.7 1 1 buy
Smith Daniel Earl SVP, GEN COUNSEL & CORP SECRET +$16,500 1 1 buy
Vorakoun Lisa SVP & CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER +$12,446.25 1 1 buy
Greathouse Steven Robert SVP & CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER +$10,020 1 1 buy

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-09-11 – 2025-09-16 7 5 +$190,535.75 7 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2025-09-11 Mays Philip SVP, CFO & Treasurer +$16,606.7 Transaction at $16.61, now +32.5%
2025-09-16 Albright John P PRESIDENT & CEO +$32,760 Transaction at $16.38, now +34.3%
2025-09-16 Albright John P PRESIDENT & CEO +$32,760 Transaction at $16.38, now +34.3%
2025-09-12 Vorakoun Lisa SVP & CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER +$12,446.25 Transaction at $16.59, now +32.6%
2025-09-12 Greathouse Steven Robert SVP & CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER +$10,020 Transaction at $16.70, now +31.7%
2025-09-11 Smith Daniel Earl SVP, GEN COUNSEL & CORP SECRET +$16,500 Transaction at $16.50, now +33.3%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for CTO Realty Growth Inc (CTO) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for CTO on Trend Edge →