MRCY — Mercury Systems Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates MRCY Bullish with a Setup Score of 31, net conviction 28, actionability 35. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score31
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction28
Actionability35 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Mercury Systems Inc

Mercury Systems, Inc., a technology company, manufactures and sells components, products, modules, and subsystems for defense prime contractors, original equipment manufacturers, government, and commercial aerospace companies. The company offers components, including power amplifiers and limiters, switches, oscillators, filters, equalizers, digital and analog converters, chips, monolithic microwave integrated circuits, and memory and storage devi… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$107.98
Market Cap$6.86B
Float55.5M
Shares Outstanding60.0M
P/E (Forward)75.19
Price/Sales (TTM)7.09
vs. Analyst Target-6.0% to analyst PT
Profit Margin-1.46%
Operating Margin (TTM)3.16%
Revenue (TTM)$967M
Earnings Growth (YoY)-34.70%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$101.50 (9 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $797M $85.7M $357M $144M
2021 $924M $62.0M $385M $163M
2022 $974M -$28.3M $317M $73.9M
2023 $974M -$28.3M $317M $73.9M
2024 $835M -$138M $196M -$66.2M
2025 $912M -$37.9M $254M $65.0M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $273M $16.4M
Sep 2025 $225M -$12.5M
Dec 2025 $233M -$15.1M
Mar 2026 $236M -$2.9M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership1.6%
Institutional Ownership113.1%
Short Float8.2%
% of All Funds Holding3.97%
Number of Funds Holding326

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$108.17Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$86.81Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$69.60Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$50.99Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$89.70Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$70.94Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$53.05Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$68.00 support 1.12x 9 months ago
$52.00 support 1.34x 10 months ago
$43.00 support 1.17x 14 months ago
$27.10 support 1.17x 23 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (113 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.01% 0.00% 48.67% 24.14% -30.20%
1 Day 0.51% 0.29% 53.10% 30.40% -35.08%
1 Week 1.23% 0.00% 49.56% 49.06% -36.54%
2 Weeks 2.10% 0.32% 51.33% 62.98% -39.07%
1 Month 1.74% -0.94% 48.21% 50.70% -56.40%

Next earnings: August 10, 2026 (28 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan0.8%57.1%28
Feb-0.6%48.3%29
Mar0.5%48.3%29
Apr2.7%44.8%29
May-0.7%41.4%29
Jun1.8%55.2%29
Jul-0.4%42.9%28
Aug-0.5%50.0%28
Sep3.8%50.0%28
Oct6.2%60.7%28
Nov3.9%64.3%28
Dec9.2%67.9%28

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.01% 47.2% 1343
Tuesday 0.10% 47.4% 1468
Wednesday 0.19% 51.3% 1468
Thursday 0.16% 50.8% 1440
Friday 0.05% 50.0% 1430

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 113.1%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 1.6%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings20
Net Value-$4.2M
Net Shares Change-2,733,642
% of Float-4.9%
C-Suite Filings12
Clusters Detected3

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
JANA Partners Management, LP -$73.8M 2 2 sell
LANCE HOWARD L -$1.4M 2 2 sell
Ratner Steven EVP, CHRO -$631,232.3 2 2 sell
Carvalho Orlando D -$625,527 1 1 sell
Farnsworth David E. EVP, CFO -$307,660.638 1 1 sell
KUPINSKY STUART EVP, CLO & Corp Sec -$191,091.2 1 1 sell
Munro Douglas SVP, CAO -$48,629.243 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-08-15 – 2025-08-25 7 6 -$55.5M 6 C-suite
2025-11-10 – 2025-11-13 3 3 -$75.7M 1 C-suite
2026-02-11 – 2026-02-19 3 3 -$32.6M 2 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-05-12 Ratner Steven EVP, CHRO -$184,920 Transaction at $92.46, now +16.8%
2026-04-17 Farnsworth David E. EVP, CFO -$307,660.638 Transaction at $84.87, now +27.2%
2026-05-13 Carvalho Orlando D -$625,527 Transaction at $89.36, now +20.8%
2026-05-27 LANCE HOWARD L -$922,743.925 Transaction at $99.76, now +8.2%
2026-02-19 KUPINSKY STUART EVP, CLO & Corp Sec -$191,091.2 Transaction at $83.56, now +29.2%
2026-02-27 LANCE HOWARD L -$429,959.574 Transaction at $88.98, now +21.4%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for MRCY on Trend Edge →