KTOS — Kratos Defense & Security Solutions

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates KTOS Bearish with a Setup Score of 0, net conviction 26, actionability 0. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score0
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction26
Actionability0 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Kratos Defense & Security Solutions

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc., a technology company, provides technology, hardware, products, system, and software for the defense, national security, and commercial markets in the United States, other North America, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, Europe, and Internationally. The company operates through Kratos Government Solutions and Unmanned Systems segments. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$41.94
Market Cap$8.04B
Float185.3M
Shares Outstanding187.7M
P/E (Forward)45.25
P/E (TTM)251.88
Price/Sales (TTM)5.28
vs. Analyst Target+143.7% to analyst PT
Profit Margin2.03%
Operating Margin (TTM)-0.17%
Revenue (TTM)$1.52B
Earnings Growth (YoY)7.40%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$102.19 (21 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $748M $79.6M $203M $64.4M
2021 $812M -$2.0M $225M $62.8M
2022 $898M -$36.9M $226M $26.2M
2023 $1.04B -$8.9M $269M $77.5M
2024 $1.14B $16.3M $287M $93.6M
2025 $1.35B $22.0M $298M $104M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $348M $8.7M
Dec 2025 $345M $5.9M
Mar 2026 $371M $11.9M
Jun 2026 $459M $4.4M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership1.3%
Institutional Ownership85.4%
Short Float5.3%
% of All Funds Holding7.06%
Number of Funds Holding621

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$50.71Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$67.13Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$64.20Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$37.14Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$61.90Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$61.21Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$41.12Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$50.00 resistance 1.02x 0 months ago
$63.00 resistance 1.26x 3 months ago
$92.00 resistance 1.23x 6 months ago
$37.70 support 2.04x 15 months ago
$29.70 support 1.22x 17 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (107 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.51% -0.20% 43.93% 20.91% -26.22%
1 Day -1.83% -3.36% 33.64% 32.20% -28.08%
1 Week -1.23% -1.52% 43.93% 57.63% -55.28%
2 Weeks -1.40% -2.38% 43.93% 50.99% -54.47%
1 Month 0.98% -1.32% 43.40% 114.96% -75.20%

Next earnings: October 23, 2026 (14 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan0.1%44.4%27
Feb0.9%51.9%27
Mar-3.8%29.6%27
Apr-1.8%33.3%27
May7.0%55.6%27
Jun2.8%70.4%27
Jul2.6%55.6%27
Aug3.0%59.3%27
Sep-3.5%33.3%27
Oct4.2%53.8%26
Nov-5.7%26.9%26
Dec6.6%66.7%27

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.07% 49.2% 1271
Tuesday 0.14% 47.2% 1389
Wednesday 0.03% 45.9% 1389
Thursday 0.06% 47.7% 1362
Friday -0.10% 47.4% 1356

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 85.4%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 1.3%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings91
Net Value-$130M
Net Shares Change-1,718,548
% of Float-0.9%
C-Suite Filings75
Clusters Detected18

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
DEMARCO ERIC M President & CEO -$19.3M 1 N/A
HOGLUND WILLIAM A -$5.6M 1 1 sell
Adelman Jonah President, ME Division -$4.0M 2 2 sell
Fendley Steven S. President, US Division -$2.0M 1 1 sell
Carrai Phillip D President, STC Division -$1.7M 1 N/A
Jarvis Scot B -$634,961 1 1 sell
ANDERSON SCOTT I -$258,370 1 1 sell
Boyd Bradley L -$156,240.3 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-10-09 – 2025-10-17 3 3 -$1.1M 3 C-suite
2025-10-29 – 2025-11-07 3 3 -$1.4M 3 C-suite
2025-11-19 – 2025-12-03 9 9 -$43.1M 6 C-suite
2025-12-09 – 2025-12-23 6 6 -$18.7M 5 C-suite
2025-12-31 – 2026-01-12 6 6 -$31.1M 6 C-suite
2026-01-16 – 2026-01-30 5 4 -$3.0M 3 C-suite
2026-02-04 – 2026-02-13 3 3 -$1.3M 2 C-suite
2026-02-19 – 2026-03-04 7 7 -$3.2M 6 C-suite
2026-03-06 – 2026-03-18 7 7 -$5.1M 5 C-suite
2026-03-27 – 2026-04-10 6 6 -$4.0M 4 C-suite
2026-04-17 – 2026-04-29 5 5 -$1.7M 4 C-suite
2026-05-05 – 2026-05-19 5 5 -$1.1M 4 C-suite
2026-05-28 – 2026-06-10 7 6 -$5.2M 6 C-suite
2026-06-17 – 2026-07-01 3 3 -$800,768.4 3 C-suite
2026-07-02 – 2026-07-10 3 3 -$699,838.4 3 C-suite
2026-07-17 – 2026-07-29 3 3 -$711,477.97 3 C-suite
2026-08-05 – 2026-08-19 5 5 -$21.5M 5 C-suite
2026-09-17 – 2026-09-23 3 3 -$700,874.85 3 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-08-20 Jarvis Scot B -$634,961 Transaction at $63.50, now -33.9%
2026-06-10 Fendley Steven S. President, US Division -$2.0M Transaction at $58.23, now -28.0%
2026-05-28 Adelman Jonah President, ME Division -$1.8M Transaction at $57.06, now -26.5%
2026-05-28 Doorenbos Bobbi -$143,225.25 Transaction at $57.29, now -26.8%
2026-05-19 Boyd Bradley L -$156,240.3 Transaction at $52.08, now -19.5%
2025-11-26 Adelman Jonah President, ME Division -$2.2M Transaction at $74.80, now -43.9%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for KTOS on Trend Edge →