JEF — Jefferies Financial Group Inc

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates JEF Bullish with a Setup Score of 0, net conviction 26, actionability 0. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score0
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction26
Actionability0 (no mans land)

Key signals behind this score

About Jefferies Financial Group Inc

Jefferies Financial Group Inc. operates as an investment banking and capital markets firm in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, and the Asia-Pacific. It operates in two segments, Investment Banking and Capital Markets, and Asset Management. The company provides investment banking and advisory services for mergers or acquisitions, debt financing, restructurings, and private capital advisory transactions; underwriting and placement services rel… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$44.38
Market Cap$8.99B
Float139.1M
Shares Outstanding194.1M
P/E (Forward)10.26
P/E (TTM)12.14
Price/Sales (TTM)1.06
vs. Analyst Target+25.4% to analyst PT
Profit Margin10.72%
Operating Margin (TTM)15.80%
Revenue (TTM)$8.51B
Earnings Growth (YoY)7.70%
Dividend Rate1.6%
Analyst Target Price$55.67 (6 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $6.96B $775M $3.33B $2.17B
2021 $8.95B $1.67B $4.62B $3.34B
2022 $7.15B $785M $3.77B $2.42B
2023 $7.44B $278M $4.51B $3.21B
2024 $10.52B $743M $6.22B $4.68B
2025 $10.82B $710M $6.46B $1.06B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Nov 2025 $2.95B $215M
Feb 2026 $2.87B $175M
May 2026 $3.41B $255M
Aug 2026 $2.22B $267M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership25.3%
Institutional Ownership68.7%
Short Float5.0%
% of All Funds Holding6.61%
Number of Funds Holding581

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$51.03Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$51.58Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$53.78Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$49.51Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$49.51Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$52.95Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$52.17Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$51.00 resistance 1.04x 0 months ago
$60.00 resistance 1.52x 7 months ago
$64.00 resistance 1.98x 11 months ago
$66.00 resistance 1.60x 18 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (108 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.26% -0.04% 43.52% 14.24% -9.97%
1 Day -0.60% -0.23% 42.59% 7.07% -12.24%
1 Week -1.61% -0.84% 44.44% 10.19% -26.00%
2 Weeks -0.97% 0.29% 52.34% 17.02% -30.91%
1 Month 1.05% 1.13% 58.88% 25.39% -21.89%

Next earnings: December 17, 2026 (67 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan3.1%52.2%46
Feb0.6%58.7%46
Mar-0.3%50.0%46
Apr3.1%59.6%47
May-0.3%48.9%47
Jun-0.7%40.4%47
Jul4.5%66.0%47
Aug0.8%48.9%47
Sep1.0%48.9%47
Oct1.7%58.7%46
Nov3.6%58.7%46
Dec3.5%69.6%46

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.01% 44.8% 2218
Tuesday 0.13% 46.9% 2407
Wednesday 0.10% 45.8% 2405
Thursday 0.06% 46.8% 2359
Friday 0.10% 46.6% 2343

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 68.7%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 25.3%

Founder-led management: Joseph S. Steinberg (Co-Founder & Chairman)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings6
Net Value-$558,304.202
Net Shares Change6,460,029
% of Float4.6%
C-Suite Filings5
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
SUMITOMO MITSUI FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. +$324M 1 1 buy
HANDLER RICHARD B CEO -$558,252.3 2 2 sell
FRIEDMAN BRIAN P President -$51.902 3 3 sell

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-08-21 SUMITOMO MITSUI FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. +$324M Transaction at $54.86, now -19.1%
2026-05-29 HANDLER RICHARD B CEO -$558,252.3 Transaction at $52.94, now -16.2%
2026-05-29 FRIEDMAN BRIAN P President +N/A N/A
2026-05-08 FRIEDMAN BRIAN P President -$51.902 Transaction at $51.90, now -14.5%
2025-12-12 FRIEDMAN BRIAN P President +N/A N/A
2025-12-12 HANDLER RICHARD B CEO +N/A N/A

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Jefferies Financial Group Inc (JEF) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for JEF on Trend Edge →