HGV — Hilton Grand Vacations Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates HGV Bullish with a Setup Score of 47, net conviction 36, actionability 62. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score47
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction36
Actionability62 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Hilton Grand Vacations Inc

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. develops, markets, sells, manages, and operates the resorts, timeshare plans, and ancillary reservation services under the Hilton Grand Vacations brand in the United States, Japan, and Europe. The company operates through two segments: Real Estate Sales and Financing, and Resort Operations and Club Management segments. The Real Estate Sales and Financing segment market and sells the VOIs, and source VOIs through fee-fo… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$50.42
Market Cap$3.96B
Float49.1M
Shares Outstanding78.5M
P/E (Forward)11.44
P/E (TTM)27.23
Price/Sales (TTM)0.85
vs. Analyst Target+14.4% to analyst PT
Profit Margin3.54%
Operating Margin (TTM)13.64%
Revenue (TTM)$4.63B
Earnings Growth (YoY)187.20%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$57.70 (9 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $894M -$201M $152M -$192M
2021 $2.33B $176M $855M $500M
2022 $3.83B $352M $1.27B $867M
2023 $3.98B $313M $1.23B $840M
2024 $4.98B $47.0M $2.83B $733M
2025 $5.05B $81.0M $2.86B $759M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $1.27B $25.0M
Sep 2025 $1.30B $60.0M
Dec 2025 $1.33B $48.0M
Mar 2026 $1.28B $66.0M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership2.0%
Institutional Ownership103.7%
Short Float11.2%
% of All Funds Holding2.94%
Number of Funds Holding242

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$50.52Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$45.54Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$43.41Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$42.30Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$46.00Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$43.40Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$42.37Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Volume shelf data not available.

Historical Earnings Reactions (38 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.15% 0.05% 50.00% 4.54% -3.69%
1 Day 0.32% -0.07% 50.00% 18.24% -7.77%
1 Week -0.15% -0.72% 42.11% 14.35% -12.85%
2 Weeks -1.48% -1.82% 36.84% 28.41% -31.56%
1 Month 0.23% -0.56% 45.95% 33.19% -43.25%

Next earnings: July 30, 2026 (17 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan4.1%66.7%9
Feb3.8%70.0%10
Mar-8.1%20.0%10
Apr5.5%50.0%10
May0.7%50.0%10
Jun-1.4%50.0%10
Jul4.2%77.8%9
Aug0.1%55.6%9
Sep-4.1%33.3%9
Oct0.9%55.6%9
Nov7.9%55.6%9
Dec1.2%55.6%9

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.02% 48.1% 447
Tuesday 0.13% 50.5% 491
Wednesday 0.05% 49.0% 488
Thursday -0.03% 49.9% 481
Friday 0.19% 50.7% 479

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 103.7%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 2.0%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings6
Net Value-$7.8M
Net Shares Change-14,447
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings6
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Wang Mark D Title: Chief Executive Officer -$5.3M 2 2 sell
Corbin Charles R. Jr. Title: Senior Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Operations, and Secretary -$2.1M 2 2 sell
Hernandez Carlos Title: Senior Vice President & Chief Accounting Officer -$375,853.905 2 2 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-05-21 – 2026-06-01 3 3 -$6.3M 3 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-05-26 Corbin Charles R. Jr. Title: Senior Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Operations, and Secretary -$1.6M Transaction at $47.66, now +5.8%
2026-05-21 Hernandez Carlos Title: Senior Vice President & Chief Accounting Officer -$261,202.575 Transaction at $46.69, now +8.0%
2026-06-01 Wang Mark D Title: Chief Executive Officer -$4.5M Transaction at $40.12, now +25.7%
2025-11-10 Hernandez Carlos Title: Senior Vice President & Chief Accounting Officer -$114,651.33 Transaction at $39.99, now +26.1%
2025-08-29 Wang Mark D Title: Chief Executive Officer -$825,156.42 Transaction at $33.02, now +52.7%
2025-11-04 Corbin Charles R. Jr. Title: Senior Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Operations, and Secretary -$487,181.112 Transaction at $33.81, now +49.1%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Hilton Grand Vacations Inc (HGV) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for HGV on Trend Edge →