HCC — Warrior Met Coal Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates HCC Bullish with a Setup Score of 0, net conviction 48, actionability 0. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score0
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction48
Actionability0 (no mans land)

Key signals behind this score

About Warrior Met Coal Inc

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. engages in the production and export of non-thermal steelmaking coal for the steel production by metal manufacturers in Europe, South America, and Asia. It offers hard-coking coal through the operation of underground mines located in Alabama. The company also sells natural gas extracted as a byproduct from coal production. Warrior Met Coal, Inc. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$79.07
Market Cap$4.11B
Float51.7M
Shares Outstanding52.8M
P/E (Forward)13.93
P/E (TTM)29.74
Price/Sales (TTM)2.84
vs. Analyst Target+31.3% to analyst PT
Profit Margin9.34%
Operating Margin (TTM)17.31%
Revenue (TTM)$1.47B
Earnings Growth (YoY)1918.00%
Dividend Rate0.3%
Analyst Target Price$103.83 (7 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $783M -$35.8M $5.7M $94.5M
2021 $1.06B $151M $335M $378M
2022 $1.74B $641M $886M $930M
2023 $1.68B $479M $602M $697M
2024 $1.53B $251M $1.48B $447M
2025 $1.31B $57.0M $111M $255M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $299M $5.6M
Sep 2025 $328M $36.6M
Dec 2025 $384M $23.0M
Mar 2026 $459M $72.3M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership2.0%
Institutional Ownership109.3%
Short Float8.0%
% of All Funds Holding3.93%
Number of Funds Holding323

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$87.93Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$85.14Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$68.45Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$57.45Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$84.46Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$68.14Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$61.97Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$98.00 resistance 1.01x 0 months ago
$50.00 support 1.02x 10 months ago
$46.00 support 1.47x 11 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (37 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.22% -0.69% 48.65% 11.67% -9.17%
1 Day -1.79% -3.27% 43.24% 23.07% -22.55%
1 Week -1.72% -3.70% 32.43% 21.68% -24.03%
2 Weeks -2.28% -3.74% 37.84% 25.77% -22.79%
1 Month 0.58% 0.38% 50.00% 37.62% -43.66%

Next earnings: August 5, 2026 (25 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan4.7%77.8%9
Feb-1.6%44.4%9
Mar-2.9%44.4%9
Apr-1.0%44.4%9
May1.6%50.0%10
Jun-0.6%60.0%10
Jul7.6%77.8%9
Aug2.0%44.4%9
Sep3.5%66.7%9
Oct4.0%55.6%9
Nov2.4%55.6%9
Dec5.8%77.8%9

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.44% 55.4% 435
Tuesday 0.36% 55.1% 477
Wednesday 0.07% 51.5% 474
Thursday -0.22% 47.0% 466
Friday -0.01% 50.8% 465

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 109.3%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 2.0%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings5
Net Value-$14.8M
Net Shares Change-151,049
% of Float-0.3%
C-Suite Filings5
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
SCHELLER WALTER J CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER -$11.5M 2 N/A
Gant Kelli K. Chief Adminstrative Officer and Corporate Secretary -$3.2M 2 N/A
Chopin Brian M CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER -$170,227.759 1 1 sell

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-06-04 Gant Kelli K. Chief Adminstrative Officer and Corporate Secretary -$2.2M Transaction at $110.00, now -28.1%
2025-11-14 Chopin Brian M CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER -$170,227.759 Transaction at $81.72, now -3.2%
2026-01-13 SCHELLER WALTER J CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER -$10.0M Transaction at $100.31, now -21.2%
2026-01-13 Gant Kelli K. Chief Adminstrative Officer and Corporate Secretary -$1.0M Transaction at $100.00, now -20.9%
2025-11-07 SCHELLER WALTER J CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER -$1.4M Transaction at $75.00, now +5.4%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Warrior Met Coal Inc (HCC) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for HCC on Trend Edge →