FPH — Five Point Holdings LLC

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About Five Point Holdings LLC

Five Point Holdings, LLC designs, develops, and owns mixed-use planned communities in California, the United States. It operates through Valencia, San Francisco, Great Park, and Hearthstone segments. The company sells residential and commercial land sites to homebuilders, commercial developers, and commercial buyers. It also provides development management services; and asset management services to land banking funds that are primarily focused on… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$4.98
Market Cap$738M
Float63.7M
Shares Outstanding72.4M
P/E (Forward)11.30
P/E (TTM)8.15
Price/Sales (TTM)6.68
vs. Analyst Target+141.0% to analyst PT
Profit Margin41.16%
Operating Margin (TTM)-70.74%
Revenue (TTM)$110M
Earnings Growth (YoY)-52.30%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$12.00

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $154M -$428,000 $42.3M -$26.8M
2021 $224M $6.6M $80.1M $29.3M
2022 $42.7M -$15.4M $15.2M -$22.2M
2023 $212M $55.4M $77.7M $46.1M
2024 $238M $68.3M $119M $86.9M
2025 $110M $71.0M $44.5M $221M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $7.5M $3.3M
Sep 2025 $13.5M $21.1M
Dec 2025 $75.9M $23.3M
Mar 2026 $13.6M -$2.2M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership16.3%
Institutional Ownership56.5%
Short Float0.7%
% of All Funds Holding0.96%
Number of Funds Holding79

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$4.96Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$5.53Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$5.34Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$3.87Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$5.51Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$5.30Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$4.14Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$5.40 resistance 1.19x 1 months ago
$6.40 resistance 1.30x 14 months ago
$3.90 support 2.09x 15 months ago
$3.30 support 5.21x 19 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (37 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.74% 0.00% 48.65% 15.76% -9.33%
1 Day 1.25% -0.38% 43.24% 41.63% -14.93%
1 Week 1.12% -0.59% 48.65% 61.82% -17.42%
2 Weeks 1.43% 1.30% 56.76% 43.60% -18.18%
1 Month -1.77% -1.13% 44.44% 40.89% -26.88%

Next earnings: July 12, 2026 (44 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan13.6%66.7%9
Feb-3.7%44.4%9
Mar-3.3%44.4%9
Apr1.0%44.4%9
May-3.5%37.5%8
Jun-2.2%44.4%9
Jul5.6%77.8%9
Aug-3.8%22.2%9
Sep-3.3%33.3%9
Oct-9.0%11.1%9
Nov3.4%77.8%9
Dec2.2%44.4%9

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.16% 45.6% 425
Tuesday 0.06% 42.7% 468
Wednesday -0.01% 44.2% 464
Thursday -0.03% 44.6% 457
Friday 0.11% 45.0% 458

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 56.5%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 16.3%

Founder-led management: Emile Haddad (Founder & Chairman Emeritus)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings2
Net Value-$1.4M
Net Shares Change248,420
% of Float0.4%
C-Suite Filings2
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
McWilliams Greg Chief Policy Officer and Vice President -$1.3M 1 1 sell
Tobler Kim Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer and Vice President -$112,471.14 1 1 sell

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-03-10 McWilliams Greg Chief Policy Officer and Vice President -$1.3M Transaction at $5.25, now -5.2%
2025-12-05 Tobler Kim Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer and Vice President -$112,471.14 Transaction at $6.01, now -17.1%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Five Point Holdings LLC (FPH) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for FPH on Trend Edge →