Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.
Trend Edge rates FLY Bearish with a Setup Score of 32, net conviction 17, actionability 62. How the Setup Score works →
| Total Setup Score | 32 |
|---|---|
| Directional Bias | Bearish |
| Net Conviction | 17 |
| Actionability | 62 (in range) |
Firefly Aerospace Inc. operates as a space and defense technology company and provides mission solutions for national security, government, and commercial customers in United States. The company offers integrated launch and space services technology that is committed to enabling launch, transit, and operations in space. It also provides Launch solutions, such as Alpha, a responsive launch services; and Eclipse, a medium-lift launch vehicles. Read full Trend Edge analysis →
| Current Price | $24.09 |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $4.15B |
| Float | 95.9M |
| Shares Outstanding | 164.2M |
| Price/Sales (TTM) | 22.46 |
| Profit Margin | -193.83% |
| Operating Margin (TTM) | -115.93% |
| Revenue (TTM) | $185M |
| Dividend Rate | None |
| Year | Revenue | Net Income | Gross Profit | EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $55.2M | -$135M | $26.6M | -$127M |
| 2024 | $60.8M | -$231M | -$11.4M | -$198M |
| 2025 | $160M | -$298M | $24.9M | -$289M |
| Quarter | Revenue | Net Income |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 2025 | $15.5M | -$63.8M |
| Sep 2025 | $30.8M | -$133M |
| Dec 2025 | $57.7M | -$41.1M |
| Mar 2026 | $80.9M | -$96.7M |
| Insider Ownership | 20.4% |
|---|---|
| Institutional Ownership | 58.7% |
| Short Float | 12.3% |
| % of All Funds Holding | 2.41% |
| Number of Funds Holding | 198 |
Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.
| Timeframe | SMA | Value | Trend Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly | 10-Week SMA | $35.36 | Near-term / short-term trend |
| Weekly | 40-Week SMA | $28.10 | Medium-term trend |
| Weekly | 80-Week SMA | $0.00 | Cyclical trend (business cycle) |
| Weekly | 200-Week SMA | $0.00 | Secular trend (multi-year) |
| Monthly | 10-Month SMA | $27.19 | Near-term monthly trend |
| Monthly | 20-Month SMA | $0.00 | Medium-term monthly trend |
| Monthly | 40-Month SMA | $0.00 | Secular monthly trend |
Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.
| Price Level | Type | Volume Ratio | Age |
|---|---|---|---|
| $44.00 | resistance | 1.83x | 0 months ago |
| Timeframe | Avg Return | Median | Win Rate | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gap | 9.75% | 13.61% | 75.00% | 23.81% | -12.04% |
| 1 Day | -0.68% | -2.21% | 50.00% | 16.99% | -15.31% |
| 1 Week | -6.83% | -2.17% | 50.00% | 17.83% | -40.79% |
| 2 Weeks | 8.38% | 12.15% | 50.00% | 51.79% | -42.57% |
| 1 Month | 14.57% | 10.76% | 66.67% | 80.53% | -47.58% |
Next earnings: July 23, 2026 (12 days away)
Insufficient historical data for monthly seasonality analysis (requires 7+ years of data).
Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.
Total institutional ownership: 58.7%
Total insider ownership: 20.4%
| Total Filings | 8 |
|---|---|
| Net Value | -$322,091.413 |
| Net Shares Change | -7,973,646 |
| % of Float | -8.3% |
| C-Suite Filings | 2 |
| Clusters Detected | 1 |
| Name | Title | Net Value | Filings | Activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEROEQUITY GP, LLC | -$384M | 2 | 1 buy, 1 sell | |
| Braden Pamela Joyce | +$399,960 | 1 | 1 buy | |
| Wheeler David Leigh | General Counsel | -$322,091.413 | 2 | N/A |
| Konert Kirk Michael | +$149,985 | 1 | 1 buy | |
| Lusczakoski Jonathan Donald | +$99,990 | 1 | 1 buy | |
| Zurbuchen Thomas Hansueli | +$36,000 | 1 | 1 buy |
| Period | Filings | Insiders | Net Value | Seniority |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-08 – 2025-08-19 | 5 | 5 | +$1.2M |
| Date | Insider | Title | Net Value | Price After |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | AEROEQUITY GP, LLC | -$384M | Transaction at $48.00, now -49.8% | |
| 2025-08-19 | Lusczakoski Jonathan Donald | +$99,990 | Transaction at $45.00, now -46.5% | |
| 2025-08-08 | Konert Kirk Michael | +$149,985 | Transaction at $45.00, now -46.5% | |
| 2025-08-08 | Braden Pamela Joyce | +$399,960 | Transaction at $45.00, now -46.5% | |
| 2025-08-08 | Zurbuchen Thomas Hansueli | +$36,000 | Transaction at $45.00, now -46.5% | |
| 2025-08-08 | AEROEQUITY GP, LLC | +$499,995 | Transaction at $45.00, now -46.5% |
Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Firefly Aerospace Inc. Common Stock (FLY) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).
AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.
Get the full AI Consult analysis for FLY on Trend Edge →