ESTC — Elastic NV

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates ESTC Bearish with a Setup Score of 49, net conviction 43, actionability 55. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score49
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction43
Actionability55 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Elastic NV

Elastic N.V., a search artificial intelligence (AI) company, provides software platforms to run in hybrid, public or private clouds, and multi-cloud environments in the United States and internationally. It primarily offers Elasticsearch Platform, a set of software products that ingest and store data from various sources and formats, as well as performs search, analysis, and visualization on that data. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$60.24
Market Cap$6.25B
Float83.3M
Shares Outstanding104.0M
P/E (Forward)18.48
P/E (TTM)17.52
Price/Sales (TTM)3.71
vs. Analyst Target+23.3% to analyst PT
Profit Margin21.14%
Operating Margin (TTM)-3.52%
Revenue (TTM)$1.74B
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$74.26 (30 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2021 $608M -$129M $447M -$104M
2022 $862M -$204M $630M -$157M
2023 $1.07B -$236M $772M -$171M
2024 $1.27B $61.7M $937M -$78.6M
2025 $1.48B -$108M $1.10B $6.1M
2026 $1.74B $368M $1.32B $34.7M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jul 2025 $415M -$24.6M
Oct 2025 $423M -$51.3M
Jan 2026 $450M $7.8M
Apr 2026 $451M $436M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership12.3%
Institutional Ownership88.5%
Short Float7.6%
% of All Funds Holding4.25%
Number of Funds Holding349

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$57.80Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$64.59Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$77.37Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$80.78Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$63.16Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$77.67Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$83.72Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$67.00 resistance 1.11x 0 months ago
$48.00 support 1.11x 1 months ago
$65.00 resistance 1.32x 4 months ago
$89.00 resistance 1.14x 7 months ago
$115.00 resistance 1.13x 15 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (32 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.27% 0.44% 53.13% 24.93% -23.56%
1 Day 0.67% -1.81% 43.75% 37.13% -26.49%
1 Week -0.76% -6.16% 40.63% 44.11% -31.40%
2 Weeks -2.13% -6.05% 40.63% 40.28% -26.86%
1 Month -2.02% -3.93% 38.71% 28.60% -32.37%

Next earnings: August 27, 2026 (46 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan2.3%75.0%8
Feb-0.2%62.5%8
Mar-13.2%12.5%8
Apr0.8%50.0%8
May8.9%50.0%8
Jun2.7%62.5%8
Jul7.9%71.4%7
Aug-3.0%57.1%7
Sep0.5%28.6%7
Oct-1.5%42.9%7
Nov5.7%62.5%8
Dec0.0%50.0%8

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.08% 50.8% 366
Tuesday 0.12% 50.4% 401
Wednesday 0.16% 49.5% 398
Thursday -0.05% 52.3% 390
Friday 0.13% 50.1% 389

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 88.5%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 12.3%

Founder-led management: Shay Banon (Founder and Chief Technology Officer), Steven Schuurman (Co-Founder and Chief Business Development Officer)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings37
Net Value-$53.0M
Net Shares Change173,863
% of Float0.2%
C-Suite Filings36
Clusters Detected4

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Banon Shay Chief Technology Officer -$35.4M 2 2 sell
Kulkarni Ashutosh Chief Executive Officer -$2.4M 1 N/A
Exner Ken Chief Product Officer -$1.1M 1 N/A
Dodds Mark Eugene Chief Revenue Officer -$1.1M 1 N/A
Welihinda Navam Chief Financial Officer -$785,566.21 1 N/A
Auvil Paul R. III +$710,230 1 1 buy
Herzog Carolyn Chief Legal Officer -$574,885.85 1 N/A
Bone Jane E GVP & CAO -$162,247.226 2 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-09-08 – 2025-09-16 9 7 -$39.5M 9 C-suite
2025-12-02 – 2025-12-16 11 8 -$3.8M 10 C-suite
2026-03-10 – 2026-03-10 7 7 -$2.0M 7 C-suite
2026-06-10 – 2026-06-10 7 7 -$6.7M 7 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2025-12-02 Auvil Paul R. III +$710,230 Transaction at $71.02, now -15.2%
2026-06-10 Kulkarni Ashutosh Chief Executive Officer -$2.4M Transaction at $60.61, now -0.6%
2026-06-10 Exner Ken Chief Product Officer -$1.1M Transaction at $60.61, now -0.6%
2026-06-10 Dodds Mark Eugene Chief Revenue Officer -$1.1M Transaction at $60.61, now -0.6%
2026-06-10 Welihinda Navam Chief Financial Officer -$785,566.21 Transaction at $60.61, now -0.6%
2026-06-10 Herzog Carolyn Chief Legal Officer -$574,885.85 Transaction at $60.61, now -0.6%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Elastic NV (ESTC) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for ESTC on Trend Edge →