BLBD — Blue Bird Corp

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates BLBD Bullish with a Setup Score of 53, net conviction 46, actionability 62. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score53
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction46
Actionability62 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Blue Bird Corp

Blue Bird Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs, engineers, manufactures, and sells school buses in the United States, Canada, and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Bus and Parts. It offers Type C, Type D, and specialty buses; and alternative power options through its propane powered, gasoline powered, compressed natural gas powered, and electric powered school buses, as well as diesel engines. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$59.90
Market Cap$1.94B
Float31.3M
Shares Outstanding31.6M
P/E (Forward)12.89
P/E (TTM)7.26
Price/Sales (TTM)1.20
vs. Analyst Target+48.8% to analyst PT
Profit Margin17.48%
Operating Margin (TTM)12.10%
Revenue (TTM)$1.61B
Earnings Growth (YoY)370.50%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$89.13 (7 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $879M $12.2M $96.2M $37.1M
2021 $684M -$289,000 $72.1M $21.1M
2022 $801M -$45.8M $36.5M -$24.3M
2023 $1.13B $23.8M $139M $59.8M
2024 $1.35B $106M $256M $152M
2025 $1.48B $128M $304M $192M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $409M $36.5M
Dec 2025 $333M $30.8M
Mar 2026 $353M $29.3M
Jun 2026 $517M $185M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership1.3%
Institutional Ownership108.5%
Short Float12.2%
% of All Funds Holding3.43%
Number of Funds Holding302

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$71.66Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$61.83Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$53.54Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$39.55Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$60.97Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$52.01Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$43.36Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$74.00 resistance 1.31x 0 months ago
$51.00 support 1.02x 5 months ago
$45.00 support 1.40x 11 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (48 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 1.92% -0.03% 45.83% 27.23% -9.77%
1 Day 1.49% 0.00% 47.92% 36.28% -16.68%
1 Week 2.65% 0.46% 50.00% 45.72% -18.06%
2 Weeks 2.75% 1.01% 54.17% 42.83% -21.62%
1 Month 4.03% 3.79% 57.45% 49.09% -43.87%

Next earnings: October 24, 2026 (57 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan5.0%58.3%12
Feb9.5%66.7%12
Mar-2.1%58.3%12
Apr2.3%61.5%13
May8.8%69.2%13
Jun0.9%53.8%13
Jul1.8%61.5%13
Aug0.2%50.0%12
Sep-2.2%50.0%12
Oct-4.4%50.0%12
Nov7.7%75.0%12
Dec0.3%41.7%12

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.22% 52.8% 587
Tuesday -0.10% 47.0% 644
Wednesday -0.00% 47.3% 641
Thursday 0.18% 46.3% 628
Friday 0.22% 51.7% 625

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 108.5%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 1.3%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings11
Net Value-$1.5M
Net Shares Change-32,949
% of Float-0.1%
C-Suite Filings5
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Horlock Phil -$1.8M 3 3 sell
Radulescu Razvan Chief Financial Officer -$1.0M 3 2 sell
Sanfrey Jeffrey Scott Chief Operating Officer -$239,818.48 1 1 sell
Thau Daniel Mark +$62,476.5 3 3 buy

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-12-05 – 2025-12-17 4 3 -$1.4M 2 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-08-13 Thau Daniel Mark +$22,529.5 Transaction at $64.37, now -6.9%
2026-05-20 Thau Daniel Mark +$19,527 Transaction at $65.09, now -8.0%
2026-03-05 Sanfrey Jeffrey Scott Chief Operating Officer -$239,818.48 Transaction at $35.45, now +69.0%
2025-12-05 Thau Daniel Mark +$20,420 Transaction at $51.05, now +17.3%
2025-09-03 Radulescu Razvan Chief Financial Officer -$385,163.69 Transaction at $57.41, now +4.3%
2026-02-20 Radulescu Razvan Chief Financial Officer -$239,346.5 Transaction at $60.98, now -1.8%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Blue Bird Corp (BLBD) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for BLBD on Trend Edge →