AVAV — AeroVironment Inc

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates AVAV Bearish with a Setup Score of 0, net conviction 22, actionability 0. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score0
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction22
Actionability0 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About AeroVironment Inc

AeroVironment, Inc. designs, develops, produces, delivers, and supports a portfolio of robotic systems and related services for government agencies and businesses in the United States and internationally. It operates in two segments, Autonomous Systems; and Space, Cyber and Directed Energy. The company provides uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS), which include small and medium UAS, and kinesis command and control software; and counter-UAS and precis… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$144.58
Market Cap$7.51B
Float37.9M
Shares Outstanding50.6M
P/E (Forward)50.25
Price/Sales (TTM)3.80
vs. Analyst Target+75.9% to analyst PT
Profit Margin-13.41%
Operating Margin (TTM)2.81%
Revenue (TTM)$1.98B
Earnings Growth (YoY)175.70%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$254.27 (19 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2021 $395M $23.3M $165M $69.5M
2022 $446M -$4.2M $141M $51.9M
2023 $541M -$176M $174M $61.2M
2024 $717M $59.7M $284M $109M
2025 $821M $43.6M $323M $104M
2026 $1.98B -$265M $501M -$311M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jul 2025 $455M -$67.4M
Oct 2025 $473M -$17.1M
Jan 2026 $408M -$157M
Apr 2026 $642M -$24.1M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.9%
Institutional Ownership89.3%
Short Float12.7%
% of All Funds Holding6.95%
Number of Funds Holding571

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$170.73Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$244.02Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$221.53Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$167.13Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$231.69Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$217.90Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$181.84Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$202.00 resistance 1.28x 0 months ago
$284.00 resistance 1.88x 3 months ago
$120.00 support 1.12x 14 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (78 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.84% 0.68% 53.85% 26.98% -36.72%
1 Day 1.68% 0.25% 50.00% 27.94% -33.62%
1 Week 1.99% 2.24% 56.41% 27.41% -36.04%
2 Weeks 2.11% 0.22% 51.95% 32.58% -35.94%
1 Month 3.78% 3.72% 61.04% 69.83% -25.43%

Next earnings: September 2, 2026 (52 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan2.9%52.6%19
Feb-3.4%45.0%20
Mar1.6%55.0%20
Apr1.7%60.0%20
May5.1%60.0%20
Jun4.9%55.0%20
Jul-0.7%36.8%19
Aug1.5%52.6%19
Sep1.7%36.8%19
Oct6.3%73.7%19
Nov-1.0%47.4%19
Dec-1.0%52.6%19

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.14% 50.9% 919
Tuesday 0.05% 49.1% 1005
Wednesday 0.19% 48.7% 1004
Thursday 0.08% 50.2% 985
Friday -0.02% 50.3% 979

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 89.3%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.9%

Founder-led management: Paul B. MacCready Jr. (Executive Vice President, MacCready Works)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings18
Net Value-$6.7M
Net Shares Change-26,713
% of Float-0.1%
C-Suite Filings10
Clusters Detected2

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Nawabi Wahid Chair, President and CEO -$4.6M 1 1 sell
Stevenson Trace E President, Autonomous Systems -$654,177 1 1 sell
PAGE STEPHEN F -$330,382.5 6 N/A
McDonnell Kevin Patrick CFO -$88,921.8 1 N/A
Shackley Brian Charles Chief Accounting Officer -$42,504 1 N/A

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-01-02 – 2026-01-16 3 3 -$795,036.4 2 C-suite
2026-03-03 – 2026-03-17 4 3 -$259,555.8 2 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2025-07-16 Nawabi Wahid Chair, President and CEO -$4.6M Transaction at $263.05, now -45.0%
2025-10-06 Stevenson Trace E President, Autonomous Systems -$654,177 Transaction at $381.00, now -62.1%
2026-06-16 PAGE STEPHEN F -$43,602.5 Transaction at $174.41, now -17.1%
2026-05-18 PAGE STEPHEN F -$40,577.5 Transaction at $162.31, now -10.9%
2026-04-20 PAGE STEPHEN F -$49,322.5 Transaction at $197.29, now -26.7%
2026-03-17 Shackley Brian Charles Chief Accounting Officer -$42,504 Transaction at $212.52, now -32.0%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for AeroVironment Inc (AVAV) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for AVAV on Trend Edge →