ALSN — Allison Transmission Holdings Inc

✨ Hidden Gem

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates ALSN Bullish with a Setup Score of 0, net conviction 43, actionability 0. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score0
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction43
Actionability0 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Allison Transmission Holdings Inc

Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and sells fully automatic transmissions for medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles and medium- and heavy-tactical U.S. defense vehicles, and electrified propulsion systems worldwide. It offers transmissions for various applications, including distribution, refuse, construction, fire, and emergency on-highway trucks; school and transit buses; motor home… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$128.78
Market Cap$10.66B
Float81.9M
Shares Outstanding82.6M
P/E (Forward)12.84
P/E (TTM)19.77
Price/Sales (TTM)2.42
vs. Analyst Target+8.2% to analyst PT
Profit Margin12.02%
Operating Margin (TTM)19.09%
Revenue (TTM)$4.40B
Earnings Growth (YoY)-6.10%
Dividend Rate1.2%
Analyst Target Price$139.40 (10 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $2.08B $299M $998M $678M
2021 $2.40B $442M $1.15B $838M
2022 $2.77B $531M $1.30B $918M
2023 $3.04B $673M $1.47B $1.09B
2024 $3.23B $731M $1.53B $1.11B
2025 $3.01B $623M $1.46B $1.03B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $693M $137M
Dec 2025 $737M $99.0M
Mar 2026 $1.41B $112M
Jun 2026 $1.57B $181M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.7%
Institutional Ownership107.4%
Short Float4.4%
% of All Funds Holding6.36%
Number of Funds Holding559

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$120.77Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$115.25Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$103.35Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$82.99Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$114.16Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$104.60Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$89.73Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$133.00 resistance 1.13x 2 months ago
$109.00 support 1.02x 5 months ago
$89.00 support 1.17x 7 months ago
$77.00 support 1.06x 24 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (58 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.47% 0.66% 63.79% 13.75% -14.44%
1 Day 0.66% 0.90% 58.62% 13.91% -12.46%
1 Week 0.87% 1.08% 55.17% 19.26% -10.36%
2 Weeks 0.85% 0.32% 55.17% 22.41% -16.30%
1 Month 0.50% -0.57% 45.61% 23.89% -39.86%

Next earnings: October 22, 2026 (56 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan2.7%71.4%14
Feb1.8%64.3%14
Mar-1.1%50.0%14
Apr1.0%46.7%15
May-0.2%60.0%15
Jun-0.4%33.3%15
Jul3.3%73.3%15
Aug-2.7%28.6%14
Sep1.3%50.0%14
Oct2.0%57.1%14
Nov6.3%85.7%14
Dec0.6%57.1%14

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.05% 53.9% 683
Tuesday 0.10% 51.9% 746
Wednesday 0.12% 52.2% 743
Thursday -0.04% 50.8% 730
Friday 0.08% 53.8% 728

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 107.4%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.7%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings8
Net Value-$4.6M
Net Shares Change-6,875
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings8
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Graziosi David S. Chair, President and CEO -$2.5M 1 1 sell
Bohley G Frederick Title: President and Business Unit Lead Allison Transmission and Allison Chief Operating Officer -$1.3M 2 1 sell
Coll John SVP, Global MSS -$327,697.05 2 N/A
Scroggins Eric C. CLO & Asst. Secretary -$281,457.2 2 2 sell
Mell Scott A CFO & Treasurer -$164,208.83 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-08-11 – 2026-08-25 3 3 -$3.0M 3 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-08-25 Graziosi David S. Chair, President and CEO -$2.5M Transaction at $85.54, now +50.5%
2026-08-13 Scroggins Eric C. CLO & Asst. Secretary -$131,250 Transaction at $125.00, now +3.0%
2026-08-11 Bohley G Frederick Title: President and Business Unit Lead Allison Transmission and Allison Chief Operating Officer -$337,755.658 Transaction at $79.75, now +61.5%
2026-03-10 Scroggins Eric C. CLO & Asst. Secretary -$150,207.2 Transaction at $114.40, now +12.6%
2026-05-11 Mell Scott A CFO & Treasurer -$164,208.83 Transaction at $107.20, now +20.1%
2026-01-02 Coll John SVP, Global MSS -$176,932.89 Transaction at $98.79, now +30.4%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (ALSN) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for ALSN on Trend Edge →