ALRM — Alarm.com Holdings Inc

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About Alarm.com Holdings Inc

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. operates a platform for connected properties in North America and internationally. It operates in two segments, Alarm.com and Other. The company offers residential solutions, such as alarm transmission, smart signal, smart arming, and personal safety and awareness, as well as real-time alerts and always-on monitoring; video monitoring solutions, including video analytics, remote video monitoring, AI deterrence, video door… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$43.88
Market Cap$2.18B
Float47.0M
Shares Outstanding49.5M
P/E (Forward)26.25
P/E (TTM)18.25
Price/Sales (TTM)2.10
vs. Analyst Target+34.5% to analyst PT
Profit Margin12.36%
Operating Margin (TTM)12.25%
Revenue (TTM)$1.04B
Earnings Growth (YoY)-10.30%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$59.00 (9 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $618M $77.9M $391M $111M
2021 $749M $52.3M $443M $103M
2022 $843M $56.3M $500M $102M
2023 $882M $81.0M $557M $145M
2024 $940M $124M $614M $196M
2025 $1.01B $133M $638M $233M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $254M $34.6M
Sep 2025 $256M $35.3M
Dec 2025 $262M $34.7M
Mar 2026 $265M $23.6M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership5.6%
Institutional Ownership99.4%
Short Float5.3%
% of All Funds Holding3.36%
Number of Funds Holding276

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$44.50Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$49.21Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$53.71Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$56.80Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$49.20Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$53.40Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$56.32Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$46.00 resistance 1.16x 1 months ago
$57.00 resistance 1.29x 7 months ago
$65.00 resistance 1.10x 16 months ago
$70.00 resistance 1.22x 20 months ago
$72.00 resistance 1.03x 24 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (44 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 2.94% 2.03% 68.18% 18.65% -9.57%
1 Day 0.62% 0.29% 52.27% 24.06% -14.41%
1 Week 0.06% -1.60% 45.45% 18.51% -16.85%
2 Weeks -0.22% -2.66% 36.36% 31.37% -17.62%
1 Month 0.74% -1.21% 44.19% 34.20% -26.06%

Next earnings: July 26, 2026 (59 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan-0.5%36.4%11
Feb3.0%45.5%11
Mar-0.9%36.4%11
Apr1.4%54.5%11
May-0.4%50.0%10
Jun5.6%50.0%10
Jul6.2%72.7%11
Aug1.0%45.5%11
Sep-5.1%36.4%11
Oct-2.3%54.5%11
Nov6.8%63.6%11
Dec3.0%36.4%11

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.05% 51.7% 513
Tuesday 0.03% 51.7% 565
Wednesday 0.10% 54.4% 562
Thursday 0.13% 53.1% 552
Friday 0.10% 51.6% 550

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 99.4%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 5.6%

Founder-led management: Alison J. Slavin (Co-Founder & Senior VP of Creation Lab)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings16
Net Value-$2.4M
Net Shares Change52,335
% of Float0.1%
C-Suite Filings13
Clusters Detected2

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Kerzner Daniel President, Platforms Business -$1.5M 2 1 sell
Trundle Stephen Chief Executive Officer +$1.3M 1 1 buy
BEDELL JEFFREY A President, Ventures Business and Corporate Strategy -$921,568.37 2 2 sell
Ramos Daniel Chief Legal and Compliance Officer; Senior Vice President, Corporate Operations -$571,592.234 2 N/A
Evans Stephen C. -$119,959.58 2 2 sell
Bradley Kevin Christopher Chief Financial Officer -$69,414.7 1 N/A

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-05-27 – 2025-05-27 4 4 -$960,331.334 4 C-suite
2026-05-20 – 2026-05-20 3 3 -$279,655.2 3 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2025-11-20 Trundle Stephen Chief Executive Officer +$1.3M Transaction at $48.36, now -9.3%
2025-12-18 BEDELL JEFFREY A President, Ventures Business and Corporate Strategy -$836,353.6 Transaction at $33.42, now +31.3%
2025-12-16 BEDELL JEFFREY A President, Ventures Business and Corporate Strategy -$85,214.77 Transaction at $33.77, now +30.0%
2025-11-14 Kerzner Daniel President, Platforms Business -$1.4M Transaction at $32.66, now +34.3%
2025-12-16 Evans Stephen C. -$60,319.58 Transaction at $52.27, now -16.1%
2025-06-12 Evans Stephen C. -$59,640 Transaction at $59.64, now -26.4%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Alarm.com Holdings Inc (ALRM) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for ALRM on Trend Edge →