AIR — AAR Corp

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates AIR Bullish with a Setup Score of 55, net conviction 52, actionability 58. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score55
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction52
Actionability58 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About AAR Corp

AAR Corp. provides products and services to commercial aviation, government, and defense markets in North America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Parts Supply; Repair, Engineering, and Software; Government Solutions; and Legacy Commercial Programs. The company sells and leases used serviceable material and aftermarket distribution of new, and original equipment manufacturers supplied replacement part… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$99.62
Market Cap$4.02B
Float38.7M
Shares Outstanding40.2M
P/E (Forward)21.32
P/E (TTM)20.64
Price/Sales (TTM)1.15
vs. Analyst Target+55.1% to analyst PT
Profit Margin5.55%
Operating Margin (TTM)8.08%
Revenue (TTM)$3.49B
Earnings Growth (YoY)4.40%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$154.50 (7 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2021 $1.65B $35.8M $276M $73.1M
2022 $1.82B $78.7M $313M $144M
2023 $1.99B $90.2M $370M $161M
2024 $2.32B $46.3M $442M $143M
2025 $2.78B $12.5M $528M $170M
2026 $3.31B $188M $622M $346M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Nov 2025 $795M $34.6M
Feb 2026 $845M $68.0M
May 2026 $928M $50.7M
Aug 2026 $918M $40.1M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership2.5%
Institutional Ownership102.7%
Short Float3.8%
% of All Funds Holding4.60%
Number of Funds Holding405

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$123.93Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$118.85Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$96.07Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$75.20Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$116.89Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$94.94Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$79.73Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$127.00 resistance 1.26x 0 months ago
$84.00 support 1.53x 8 months ago
$75.00 support 1.66x 12 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (123 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.05% 0.09% 53.66% 10.03% -12.18%
1 Day -0.05% 0.00% 49.59% 13.65% -16.40%
1 Week -0.10% -0.06% 48.78% 29.92% -26.73%
2 Weeks 0.45% 0.65% 52.46% 28.41% -26.09%
1 Month -0.28% -0.98% 46.72% 41.21% -28.80%

Next earnings: December 17, 2026 (69 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan0.3%50.0%46
Feb0.8%52.2%46
Mar-0.0%52.2%46
Apr-0.6%38.3%47
May1.2%59.6%47
Jun4.4%63.8%47
Jul0.9%51.1%47
Aug-1.6%44.7%47
Sep-2.7%42.6%47
Oct2.4%54.3%46
Nov4.9%60.9%46
Dec6.2%65.2%46

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.05% 43.1% 2218
Tuesday 0.19% 47.5% 2407
Wednesday 0.08% 45.7% 2405
Thursday 0.06% 45.5% 2359
Friday 0.03% 44.9% 2343

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 102.7%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 2.5%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings12
Net Value-$18.7M
Net Shares Change-76,997
% of Float-0.2%
C-Suite Filings11
Clusters Detected3

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Holmes John McClain III Chairman, President & CEO -$9.9M 4 4 sell
Jessup Christopher A. Senior Vice President-CCO -$1.7M 1 1 sell
Garascia Jessica A. Senior VP, GC, CAO & Secretary -$814,978.817 2 2 sell
Flanagan Sarah Louise Interim CFO VP Fin Ops -$762,147.05 1 1 sell
Pachapa Eric VP-CAO & Controller -$378,404.037 1 1 sell
Nolen Billy -$173,384.968 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-01-06 – 2026-01-15 5 3 -$7.0M 5 C-suite
2026-01-23 – 2026-02-04 3 3 -$1.8M 3 C-suite
2026-03-27 – 2026-03-30 3 3 -$6.8M 2 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-01-12 Jessup Christopher A. Senior Vice President-CCO -$1.7M Transaction at $69.13, now +44.1%
2026-01-08 Garascia Jessica A. Senior VP, GC, CAO & Secretary -$455,975.154 Transaction at $95.25, now +4.6%
2026-01-23 Pachapa Eric VP-CAO & Controller -$378,404.037 Transaction at $67.97, now +46.6%
2026-03-30 Holmes John McClain III Chairman, President & CEO -$6.3M Transaction at $74.32, now +34.0%
2026-01-15 Holmes John McClain III Chairman, President & CEO -$1.4M Transaction at $72.43, now +37.5%
2026-01-13 Holmes John McClain III Chairman, President & CEO -$1.5M Transaction at $72.80, now +36.8%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for AAR Corp (AIR) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for AIR on Trend Edge →