AGRO — Adecoagro SA

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About Adecoagro SA

Adecoagro S.A., engages in agricultural and agro-industrial activities in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay. The company operates through three segments: Sugar, Ethanol and Energy, Fertilizers and Farming. The company is involved in the production of a range of agricultural commodities, including soybean, corn, wheat, peanut, sunflower, cotton, and others; planting, harvesting, processing, and marketing of white, brown, and rough rice; geneti… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$12.58
Market Cap$1.97B
Float29.4M
Shares Outstanding144.3M
P/E (Forward)27.10
P/E (TTM)681.00
Price/Sales (TTM)1.31
vs. Analyst Target+4.2% to analyst PT
Profit Margin0.91%
Operating Margin (TTM)0.36%
Revenue (TTM)$1.50B
Earnings Growth (YoY)55.60%
Dividend Rate0.3%
Analyst Target Price$13.11 (6 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $818M $412,000 $336M $267M
2021 $1.12B $131M $484M $453M
2022 $1.35B $108M $466M $471M
2023 $1.30B $226M $415M $652M
2024 $1.52B $92.3M $435M $413M
2025 $1.43B -$8.3M $351M $376M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $382M -$17.6M
Sep 2025 $304M $6.5M
Dec 2025 $416M -$14.8M
Mar 2026 $399M $40.1M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership73.4%
Institutional Ownership12.2%
Short Float4.7%
% of All Funds Holding0.96%
Number of Funds Holding79

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$13.44Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$9.72Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$9.79Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$9.77Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$9.98Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$10.01Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$10.09Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$9.00 support 3.29x 1 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (62 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.44% 0.09% 51.61% 22.20% -7.64%
1 Day 0.39% 0.49% 56.45% 14.22% -12.22%
1 Week -0.25% -1.56% 38.71% 28.17% -15.13%
2 Weeks 1.22% 0.00% 49.18% 37.80% -19.13%
1 Month 0.64% -1.35% 45.90% 31.02% -24.21%

Next earnings: July 30, 2026 (63 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan1.7%60.0%15
Feb1.5%50.0%16
Mar4.9%50.0%16
Apr-2.5%31.3%16
May2.1%53.3%15
Jun-4.2%26.7%15
Jul1.7%53.3%15
Aug-1.0%26.7%15
Sep-1.1%40.0%15
Oct3.4%66.7%15
Nov0.8%46.7%15
Dec-0.2%33.3%15

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.01% 48.4% 721
Tuesday 0.04% 47.8% 793
Wednesday 0.02% 46.6% 789
Thursday -0.01% 49.3% 775
Friday 0.08% 50.1% 774

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 12.2%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 73.4%

Founder-led management: Mariano Bosch (Chief Executive Officer), Ezequiel Garbers (VP Crops and Rice Businesses)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings8
Net Value-$1.5M
Net Shares Change-107,978
% of Float-0.4%
C-Suite Filings1
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
BOSCH MARIANO Chief Executive Officer -$1.5M 1 1 sell
Vaz Artigas Manuela -$30,189.842 2 2 sell
Louis Dreyfus Kyril Robert Leonid -$15,158.542 1 1 sell
Leon Bentancor Oscar Alejandro -$15,158.542 1 1 sell
Larriera Andres Eduardo -$15,158.542 1 1 sell
Deprati Christian Ferdinando Emilio -$15,158.542 1 1 sell
Sarjanovic Ivo -$15,158.542 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-04-08 – 2026-04-22 7 6 -$105,982.552

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-03-20 BOSCH MARIANO Chief Executive Officer -$1.5M Transaction at $14.50, now -13.2%
2026-04-22 Louis Dreyfus Kyril Robert Leonid -$15,158.542 Transaction at $13.03, now -3.5%
2026-04-22 Leon Bentancor Oscar Alejandro -$15,158.542 Transaction at $13.03, now -3.5%
2026-04-22 Larriera Andres Eduardo -$15,158.542 Transaction at $13.03, now -3.5%
2026-04-22 Deprati Christian Ferdinando Emilio -$15,158.542 Transaction at $13.03, now -3.5%
2026-04-22 Vaz Artigas Manuela -$15,158.542 Transaction at $13.03, now -3.5%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Adecoagro SA (AGRO) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for AGRO on Trend Edge →