ADP — Automatic Data Processing Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates ADP Bullish with a Setup Score of 0, net conviction 21, actionability 0. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score0
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction21
Actionability0 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Automatic Data Processing Inc

Automatic Data Processing, Inc. provides cloud-based human capital management (HCM) solutions worldwide. It operates in two segments, Employer Services and Professional Employer Organization (PEO). The Employer Services segment offers strategic, cloud-based platforms, and human resources (HR) outsourcing solutions. This segment's offerings include RUN Powered by ADP, a software platform for small business payroll, HR, and compliance; ADP Workforc… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$282.78
Market Cap$110.92B
Float396.2M
Shares Outstanding397.3M
P/E (Forward)22.62
P/E (TTM)25.50
Price/Sales (TTM)5.05
vs. Analyst Target+1.5% to analyst PT
Profit Margin20.11%
Operating Margin (TTM)23.46%
Revenue (TTM)$21.95B
Earnings Growth (YoY)9.80%
Dividend Rate6.8%
Analyst Target Price$286.93 (18 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2021 $15.01B $2.60B $6.97B $3.93B
2022 $16.50B $2.95B $7.73B $4.41B
2023 $18.01B $3.41B $8.81B $5.24B
2024 $19.20B $3.75B $9.59B $5.80B
2025 $20.56B $4.08B $10.45B $6.24B
2026 $21.95B $4.41B $10.58B $6.35B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $5.18B $1.01B
Dec 2025 $5.36B $1.06B
Mar 2026 $5.94B $1.36B
Jun 2026 $5.47B $979M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.2%
Institutional Ownership91.7%
Short Float3.3%
% of All Funds Holding25.78%
Number of Funds Holding2,268

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$258.74Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$236.09Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$266.62Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$256.20Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$238.39Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$270.47Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$260.95Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$202.00 support 1.16x 3 months ago
$292.00 resistance 1.13x 9 months ago
$322.00 resistance 1.02x 13 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (122 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.29% -0.04% 35.25% 4.05% -22.13%
1 Day -0.11% 0.00% 48.36% 9.77% -23.58%
1 Week 0.85% 1.37% 63.11% 10.71% -15.84%
2 Weeks 1.06% 2.07% 64.75% 13.85% -16.25%
1 Month 1.97% 1.44% 61.98% 18.07% -14.96%

Next earnings: October 17, 2026 (51 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan-0.7%41.3%46
Feb0.3%54.3%46
Mar1.9%58.7%46
Apr1.0%48.9%47
May1.5%57.4%47
Jun-0.3%42.6%47
Jul1.1%59.6%47
Aug1.4%58.7%46
Sep0.6%58.7%46
Oct3.8%76.1%46
Nov3.1%69.6%46
Dec1.3%60.9%46

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.01% 48.1% 2213
Tuesday 0.10% 49.6% 2401
Wednesday 0.08% 49.8% 2399
Thursday 0.05% 49.7% 2353
Friday 0.08% 50.1% 2337

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 91.7%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.2%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings33
Net Value-$28.5M
Net Shares Change-102,297
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings28
Clusters Detected4

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Black Maria President & CEO -$7.1M 3 2 buy
McGuire Don Corp VP -$4.0M 1 N/A
SWAN ROBERT HOLMES +$745,694.95 1 N/A
Kwon David Corp VP -$518,330.57 1 N/A
Michaud Brian L. Executive VP +$21,083.014 2 2 buy
Foskett David Corp. VP +$17,069.481 2 2 buy

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-09-03 – 2025-09-15 13 7 -$42.1M 9 C-suite
2026-01-05 – 2026-01-14 7 5 -$702,149.341 7 C-suite
2026-02-09 – 2026-02-18 3 3 -$412,571.49 3 C-suite
2026-07-02 – 2026-07-02 3 3 +$33,208.466 3 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-07-02 Michaud Brian L. Executive VP +$11,069.489 Transaction at $223.94, now +26.3%
2026-07-02 Foskett David Corp. VP +$11,069.489 Transaction at $223.94, now +26.3%
2026-07-02 Black Maria President & CEO +$11,069.489 Transaction at $223.94, now +26.3%
2026-01-05 Michaud Brian L. Executive VP +$10,013.525 Transaction at $244.37, now +15.7%
2026-01-05 Foskett David Corp. VP +$5,999.992 Transaction at $244.37, now +15.7%
2026-01-05 Black Maria President & CEO -$101,939.144 Transaction at $250.80, now +12.8%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Automatic Data Processing Inc (ADP) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for ADP on Trend Edge →