ACGL — Arch Capital Group Ltd.

✨ Hidden Gem

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About Arch Capital Group Ltd.

Arch Capital Group Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance products in the United States, Canada, Bermuda, the United Kingdom, Europe, and Australia. The company operates through three segments: Insurance, Reinsurance, and Mortgage. The Insurance segment offers commercial automobile; commercial multiperil; financial and professional line liability; admitted, excess, and surplus casualty lines;… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$91.40
Market Cap$33.59B
Float336.7M
Shares Outstanding349.4M
P/E (Forward)10.20
P/E (TTM)7.39
Price/Sales (TTM)1.70
vs. Analyst Target+19.2% to analyst PT
Profit Margin24.64%
Operating Margin (TTM)25.28%
Revenue (TTM)$19.78B
Earnings Growth (YoY)94.60%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$108.92 (14 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $8.29B $1.41B $2.60B $1.77B
2021 $8.92B $2.16B $3.04B $2.32B
2022 $9.66B $1.48B $2.89B $1.72B
2023 $13.29B $4.44B $4.74B $3.61B
2024 $17.44B $4.31B $6.45B $4.85B
2025 $19.93B $4.40B $7.41B $5.35B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $4.97B $1.24B
Sep 2025 $4.98B $1.35B
Dec 2025 $5.39B $1.24B
Mar 2026 $4.36B $1.05B

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership2.6%
Institutional Ownership95.1%
Short Float2.0%
% of All Funds Holding10.37%
Number of Funds Holding852

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$94.92Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$93.57Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$92.85Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$84.57Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$93.65Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$93.65Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$89.74Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$111.00 resistance 1.23x 18 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (120 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.34% 0.29% 58.33% 7.02% -4.35%
1 Day -0.12% -0.06% 45.00% 6.98% -6.26%
1 Week 0.72% 0.37% 60.83% 19.28% -11.30%
2 Weeks 1.16% 0.83% 60.00% 19.65% -14.71%
1 Month 1.79% 2.03% 60.50% 40.30% -42.95%

Next earnings: July 17, 2026 (50 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan-0.7%48.4%31
Feb2.4%67.7%31
Mar0.4%64.5%31
Apr1.0%51.6%31
May1.5%46.7%30
Jun-0.3%53.3%30
Jul1.5%63.3%30
Aug1.6%60.0%30
Sep1.9%60.0%30
Oct2.3%54.8%31
Nov1.3%67.7%31
Dec1.6%61.3%31

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.04% 51.6% 1452
Tuesday 0.12% 50.7% 1587
Wednesday 0.05% 50.2% 1584
Thursday 0.05% 50.5% 1552
Friday 0.05% 49.0% 1548

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 95.1%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 2.6%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings10
Net Value-$7.0M
Net Shares Change-277,503
% of Float-0.1%
C-Suite Filings5
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
PASQUESI JOHN M -$20.0M 1 1 sell
Rajeh Maamoun President, Arch Capital Group -$4.2M 2 2 sell
Papadopoulo Nicolas CEO -$1.7M 1 1 sell
Morin Francois EVP AND CFO -$756,996 1 1 sell
Houston Daniel Joseph +$498,650.5 1 1 buy
Gansberg David President, Arch Capital Group -$365,713.451 1 1 sell
Posner Brian S -$68,290 3 1 buy, 2 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-03-12 – 2026-03-12 3 3 -$2.1M 2 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-05-04 Houston Daniel Joseph +$498,650.5 Transaction at $94.08, now -2.9%
2026-03-12 Posner Brian S -$51,345 Transaction at $17.11, now +434.0%
2026-03-12 Papadopoulo Nicolas CEO -$1.7M Transaction at $57.60, now +58.7%
2026-05-12 Posner Brian S -$34,283 Transaction at $17.14, now +433.2%
2026-03-12 Gansberg David President, Arch Capital Group -$365,713.451 Transaction at $57.64, now +58.6%
2025-08-04 Posner Brian S +$17,338 Transaction at $17.34, now +427.2%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for ACGL on Trend Edge →