AAP — Advance Auto Parts Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About Advance Auto Parts Inc

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. provides automotive aftermarket parts. The company offers batteries and battery accessories; belts and hoses; brakes and brake pads; chassis parts; climate control parts; clutches and drive shafts; engines and engine parts; exhaust systems and parts; hub assemblies; ignition components and wires; radiators and cooling parts; starters and alternators; and steering and alignment parts. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$56.15
Market Cap$3.45B
Float59.7M
Shares Outstanding60.3M
P/E (Forward)20.58
P/E (TTM)50.65
Price/Sales (TTM)0.40
vs. Analyst Target+1.8% to analyst PT
Profit Margin0.51%
Operating Margin (TTM)3.40%
Revenue (TTM)$8.60B
Earnings Growth (YoY)-66.40%
Dividend Rate1.0%
Analyst Target Price$57.16 (28 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $10.11B $493M $4.48B $948M
2021 $11.00B $597M $4.92B $1.08B
2022 $9.15B $464M $4.23B $759M
2023 $9.21B $30.0M $3.86B $310M
2024 $9.09B -$336M $3.41B -$395M
2025 $8.60B $44.0M $3.73B $320M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Mar 2025 $2.58B $24.0M
Jun 2025 $2.01B $15.0M
Sep 2025 $2.04B -$1.0M
Dec 2025 $1.97B $6.0M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.8%
Institutional Ownership121.6%
Short Float19.3%
% of All Funds Holding4.11%
Number of Funds Holding317

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$53.78Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$52.67Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$48.09Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$77.45Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$53.03Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$47.97Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$60.79Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$33.00 support 1.65x 11 months ago
$63.00 resistance 1.38x 20 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (97 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.04% -0.08% 46.39% 37.56% -29.39%
1 Day 0.20% -0.12% 47.42% 57.04% -35.04%
1 Week 0.21% -0.40% 46.39% 53.08% -41.59%
2 Weeks 0.57% 0.64% 53.61% 67.68% -37.43%
1 Month 1.14% 1.77% 58.76% 49.09% -36.76%

Next earnings: May 21, 2026 (10 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan0.5%48.0%25
Feb0.2%48.0%25
Mar2.6%76.0%25
Apr2.9%56.0%25
May1.5%41.7%24
Jun-1.9%37.5%24
Jul2.1%66.7%24
Aug-0.9%50.0%24
Sep-1.7%41.7%24
Oct1.0%54.2%24
Nov3.2%70.8%24
Dec2.4%60.0%25

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.05% 50.3% 1153
Tuesday 0.10% 49.5% 1261
Wednesday 0.05% 52.6% 1261
Thursday 0.07% 51.5% 1236
Friday -0.02% 48.8% 1233

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 121.6%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.8%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings2
Net Value-$436,757.064
Net Shares Change-8,610
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings2
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Soler Kristen L EVP, Chief HR Officer -$390,762 1 1 sell
Hand Jason SVP, U.S. Stores -$45,995.064 1 1 sell

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2025-11-14 Soler Kristen L EVP, Chief HR Officer -$390,762 Transaction at $51.00, now +10.1%
2025-06-23 Hand Jason SVP, U.S. Stores -$45,995.064 Transaction at $48.52, now +15.7%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for AAP on Trend Edge →