VVV — Valvoline Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About Valvoline Inc

Valvoline Inc. provides automotive preventive maintenance through its retail stores in the United States and Canada. The company offers oil changes; battery, bulb, and wiper replacements; tire rotations; and other maintenance services. It also operates and franchises service centers and retail locations. The company was founded in 1866 and is headquartered in Lexington, Kentucky.… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$33.96
Market Cap$4.26B
Float127.0M
Shares Outstanding127.5M
P/E (Forward)18.73
P/E (TTM)44.57
Price/Sales (TTM)2.29
vs. Analyst Target+25.6% to analyst PT
Profit Margin5.03%
Operating Margin (TTM)17.92%
Revenue (TTM)$1.86B
Earnings Growth (YoY)17.50%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$42.67 (14 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $727M $317M $301M $256M
2021 $1.04B $420M $432M $430M
2022 $1.24B $424M $476M $285M
2023 $1.44B $1.42B $545M $369M
2024 $1.62B $212M $619M $367M
2025 $1.71B $211M $659M $511M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $439M $56.5M
Sep 2025 $454M $25.0M
Dec 2025 $462M -$32.8M
Mar 2026 $504M $44.8M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.3%
Institutional Ownership121.0%
Short Float12.8%
% of All Funds Holding4.62%
Number of Funds Holding380

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$33.65Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$34.00Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$35.23Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$36.00Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$33.95Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$35.32Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$36.85Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$32.70 support 1.03x 2 months ago
$38.40 resistance 1.02x 7 months ago
$39.40 resistance 1.24x 16 months ago
$46.00 resistance 1.17x 20 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (40 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.16% -0.10% 47.50% 7.82% -12.79%
1 Day -0.43% -0.52% 47.50% 7.33% -20.86%
1 Week 1.70% 1.99% 67.50% 14.68% -16.62%
2 Weeks 1.43% 0.17% 52.50% 15.69% -15.13%
1 Month 0.98% -0.05% 48.72% 26.63% -19.90%

Next earnings: August 5, 2026 (69 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan3.4%60.0%10
Feb-0.2%30.0%10
Mar-3.9%30.0%10
Apr2.1%20.0%10
May2.9%77.8%9
Jun3.0%66.7%9
Jul2.0%66.7%9
Aug-2.2%22.2%9
Sep-2.6%22.2%9
Oct-1.3%40.0%10
Nov5.5%80.0%10
Dec-0.6%50.0%10

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.00% 50.9% 454
Tuesday 0.11% 50.2% 500
Wednesday 0.08% 49.5% 497
Thursday -0.06% 49.6% 488
Friday 0.06% 49.5% 489

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 121.0%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.3%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings10
Net Value+$835,569.121
Net Shares Change40,142
% of Float0.0%
C-Suite Filings8
Clusters Detected2

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
WILLIS J KEVIN Chief Financial Officer +$1.1M 3 3 buy
O'Daniel Julie Marie Chief Legal Officer -$347,473.44 2 2 sell
Flees Lori Ann President and CEO +$240,042.6 2 2 buy
Caldwell Jonathan L. Chief People Officer -$190,606.287 1 N/A
Freeland Richard Joseph +$100,347 1 1 buy
Slater Jennifer Lynn +$32,530 1 1 buy

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-11-24 – 2025-11-28 3 3 +$350,774 3 C-suite
2026-05-15 – 2026-05-18 3 3 +$450,877 1 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-05-15 WILLIS J KEVIN Chief Financial Officer +$318,000 Transaction at $31.80, now +6.8%
2026-05-15 Freeland Richard Joseph +$100,347 Transaction at $32.37, now +4.9%
2026-05-18 Slater Jennifer Lynn +$32,530 Transaction at $32.53, now +4.4%
2025-11-24 WILLIS J KEVIN Chief Financial Officer +$314,100 Transaction at $31.41, now +8.1%
2025-08-15 WILLIS J KEVIN Chief Financial Officer +$501,506.248 Transaction at $39.41, now -13.8%
2025-11-25 Flees Lori Ann President and CEO +$138,690 Transaction at $30.82, now +10.2%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Valvoline Inc (VVV) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for VVV on Trend Edge →