KMX — CarMax Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates KMX Bearish with a Setup Score of 58, net conviction 37, actionability 90. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score58
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction37
Actionability90 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About CarMax Inc

CarMax, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer of used vehicles and related products in the United States. The company operates in two segments: CarMax Sales Operations and CarMax Auto Finance. The CarMax Sales Operations segment offers customers a range of makes and models of used vehicles, including domestic, imported, and luxury vehicles, as well as hybrid and electric vehicles; wholesale auctions; extended protection plans to … Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$53.49
Market Cap$7.24B
Float131.1M
Shares Outstanding141.9M
P/E (Forward)20.88
P/E (TTM)31.29
Price/Sales (TTM)0.26
vs. Analyst Target-4.1% to analyst PT
Profit Margin0.79%
Operating Margin (TTM)3.43%
Revenue (TTM)$28.20B
Earnings Growth (YoY)-5.20%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$51.31 (20 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2021 $18.95B $747M $2.38B $1.61B
2022 $31.90B $1.15B $3.29B $2.09B
2023 $29.68B $485M $2.80B $1.33B
2024 $26.54B $479M $2.71B $1.67B
2025 $26.35B $501M $2.90B $1.84B
2026 $25.88B $247M $2.81B $1.61B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Aug 2025 $6.59B $95.4M
Nov 2025 $5.79B $62.2M
Feb 2026 $5.95B -$121M
May 2026 $8.01B $186M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.4%
Institutional Ownership111.8%
Short Float11.4%
% of All Funds Holding6.17%
Number of Funds Holding507

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$47.15Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$42.87Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$55.49Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$66.20Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$43.88Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$56.31Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$66.01Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$45.00 support 1.01x 0 months ago
$60.00 resistance 1.64x 9 months ago
$67.00 resistance 1.19x 11 months ago
$77.00 resistance 2.13x 14 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (118 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.07% 0.00% 42.37% 3.23% -3.93%
1 Day -0.16% -0.35% 44.07% 13.14% -10.91%
1 Week -0.48% -1.46% 38.14% 24.70% -27.27%
2 Weeks 0.81% -0.29% 45.76% 39.60% -34.55%
1 Month 2.71% 1.47% 52.14% 73.99% -35.68%

Next earnings: September 29, 2026 (78 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan0.1%51.7%29
Feb2.0%55.2%29
Mar5.1%50.0%30
Apr3.1%56.7%30
May0.6%53.3%30
Jun4.6%66.7%30
Jul0.4%48.3%29
Aug-0.1%48.3%29
Sep-2.4%34.5%29
Oct1.1%41.4%29
Nov1.9%69.0%29
Dec0.2%41.4%29

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.03% 48.7% 1390
Tuesday 0.22% 49.3% 1519
Wednesday 0.03% 48.8% 1520
Thursday -0.05% 48.0% 1489
Friday 0.11% 48.6% 1480

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 111.8%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.4%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings8
Net Value+$498,247
Net Shares Change37,081
% of Float0.0%
C-Suite Filings1
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
ONeil Mark F +$1.0M 3 4 buy
Barr Keith President and CEO +$498,247 1 1 buy
Bensen Peter J +$130,500 1 1 buy
Chawla Sona +$106,780 1 1 buy
STEENROD MITCHELL D +$91,140 1 1 buy
Shinder Marcella +$29,853.74 1 1 buy

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-06-24 – 2026-06-26 5 5 +$1.3M 1 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-06-26 ONeil Mark F +$502,656 Transaction at $52.36, now +2.2%
2026-06-24 Barr Keith President and CEO +$498,247 Transaction at $53.01, now +0.9%
2026-06-26 Chawla Sona +$106,780 Transaction at $53.39, now +0.2%
2026-06-24 Bensen Peter J +$130,500 Transaction at $52.20, now +2.5%
2026-06-26 Shinder Marcella +$29,853.74 Transaction at $52.01, now +2.8%
2026-04-14 ONeil Mark F +$17,795.47 Transaction at $93.17, now -42.6%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for CarMax Inc (KMX) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for KMX on Trend Edge →