ULTA — Ulta Beauty Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates ULTA Bullish with a Setup Score of 0, net conviction 20, actionability 0. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score0
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction20
Actionability0 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Ulta Beauty Inc

Ulta Beauty, Inc. operates as a specialty beauty retailer in the United States, Mexico, and Kuwait. The company offers branded and private label beauty products, including cosmetics, fragrance, haircare, skincare, bath and body products, professional hair products, and salon styling tools through its Ulta Beauty stores, shop-in-shops, Ulta.com website, and its mobile applications. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$469.20
Market Cap$19.79B
Float42.8M
Shares Outstanding43.0M
P/E (Forward)16.23
P/E (TTM)17.06
Price/Sales (TTM)1.56
vs. Analyst Target+32.9% to analyst PT
Profit Margin9.36%
Operating Margin (TTM)14.17%
Revenue (TTM)$12.71B
Earnings Growth (YoY)15.50%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$623.58 (28 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2021 $6.15B $176M $1.95B $535M
2022 $8.63B $986M $3.37B $1.57B
2023 $10.21B $1.24B $4.04B $1.88B
2024 $11.21B $1.29B $4.38B $1.94B
2025 $11.30B $1.20B $4.39B $1.85B
2026 $12.39B $1.15B $4.85B $1.83B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jul 2025 $2.79B $261M
Oct 2025 $2.86B $231M
Jan 2026 $3.90B $357M
Apr 2026 $3.16B $340M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.2%
Institutional Ownership101.8%
Short Float5.0%
% of All Funds Holding12.45%
Number of Funds Holding1,023

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$484.97Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$560.72Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$499.68Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$464.25Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$548.51Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$497.72Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$464.12Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$504.00 resistance 1.45x 0 months ago
$680.00 resistance 1.42x 3 months ago
$352.00 support 1.29x 21 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (75 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 2.50% 2.83% 68.00% 17.46% -25.08%
1 Day 3.41% 3.65% 61.33% 20.10% -29.55%
1 Week 3.52% 3.60% 66.67% 26.58% -32.98%
2 Weeks 3.70% 2.79% 62.67% 35.53% -33.19%
1 Month 4.16% 4.28% 68.92% 36.15% -25.35%

Next earnings: August 27, 2026 (45 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan0.7%52.6%19
Feb0.8%57.9%19
Mar3.0%73.7%19
Apr4.6%73.7%19
May2.1%63.2%19
Jun0.7%52.6%19
Jul-1.0%55.6%18
Aug-0.2%44.4%18
Sep9.0%72.2%18
Oct-2.8%44.4%18
Nov4.4%78.9%19
Dec0.6%63.2%19

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.02% 50.4% 883
Tuesday 0.12% 51.2% 966
Wednesday 0.03% 50.2% 965
Thursday 0.05% 52.4% 945
Friday 0.27% 51.3% 941

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 101.8%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.2%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings3
Net Value+N/A
Net Shares Change-1,335
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings0
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
MRKONIC GEORGE R JR -$426,005.8 2 2 sell
Smith Mike C. -$264,215 1 1 sell

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-06-16 MRKONIC GEORGE R JR -$182,246.72 Transaction at $475.84, now -1.4%
2026-04-07 MRKONIC GEORGE R JR -$243,759.08 Transaction at $539.29, now -13.0%
2025-09-08 Smith Mike C. -$264,215 Transaction at $528.43, now -11.2%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Ulta Beauty Inc (ULTA) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for ULTA on Trend Edge →