TKO — TKO Group Holdings, Inc.

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates TKO Bullish with a Setup Score of 29, net conviction 34, actionability 24. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score29
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction34
Actionability24 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About TKO Group Holdings, Inc.

TKO Group Holdings, Inc. operates as a sports and entertainment company. The company operates through three segments: UFC, WWE and IMG. The UFC segment distributes programming content; ticket sales and site fees associated with the business's global live events; partnerships and marketing; and consumer products licensing agreements of UFC-branded products. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$184.34
Market Cap$36.99B
Float59.8M
Shares Outstanding73.1M
P/E (Forward)50.25
P/E (TTM)70.82
Price/Sales (TTM)6.98
vs. Analyst Target+25.4% to analyst PT
Profit Margin4.33%
Operating Margin (TTM)32.39%
Revenue (TTM)$5.30B
Earnings Growth (YoY)14.40%
Dividend Rate3.1%
Analyst Target Price$231.16 (19 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $974M $132M $382M $293M
2021 $1.10B $177M $446M $341M
2022 $1.14B $387M $755M $603M
2023 $1.67B -$35.2M $996M $611M
2024 $2.80B $9.4M $1.51B $676M
2025 $4.74B $195M $2.35B $1.31B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $1.12B $41.0M
Dec 2025 $1.04B -$2.4M
Mar 2026 $1.60B $89.4M
Jun 2026 $1.55B $102M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership18.1%
Institutional Ownership116.8%
Short Float13.4%
% of All Funds Holding7.36%
Number of Funds Holding647

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$190.76Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$198.20Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$184.66Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$134.85Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$198.97Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$184.95Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$143.72Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$223.00 resistance 1.46x 4 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (105 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.29% 0.04% 51.43% 17.94% -6.72%
1 Day 0.15% -0.07% 47.62% 15.53% -12.09%
1 Week -0.06% 0.40% 51.43% 22.74% -26.32%
2 Weeks -0.01% 0.20% 50.48% 24.23% -44.56%
1 Month 0.87% -0.11% 48.08% 51.39% -45.30%

Next earnings: October 22, 2026 (55 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan4.8%70.4%27
Feb0.9%51.9%27
Mar3.3%66.7%27
Apr-0.4%44.4%27
May1.3%55.6%27
Jun3.1%51.9%27
Jul-0.4%59.3%27
Aug2.1%61.5%26
Sep-1.8%42.3%26
Oct-1.3%42.3%26
Nov1.7%59.3%27
Dec1.8%63.0%27

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.01% 48.3% 1268
Tuesday 0.15% 50.5% 1385
Wednesday 0.06% 48.5% 1386
Thursday 0.05% 50.5% 1359
Friday 0.04% 52.2% 1353

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 116.8%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 18.1%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings48
Net Value-$27.6M
Net Shares Change19,908
% of Float0.0%
C-Suite Filings31
Clusters Detected4

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Khan Nick -$9.8M 4 N/A
SHAPIRO MARK S President and Chief Operating Officer. -$3.7M 1 N/A
Emanuel Ariel Chief Executive Officer -$2.8M 2 1 buy
Schleimer Andrew M Chief Financial Officer -$1.9M 1 N/A
KRAFT JONATHAN +$987,797.2 1 1 buy
BYNOE PETER C B +$150,220 1 1 buy

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-01-05 – 2026-01-13 8 5 -$19.1M 7 C-suite
2026-01-22 – 2026-02-03 9 5 -$12.7M 7 C-suite
2026-05-06 – 2026-05-18 5 5 +$3.7M 3 C-suite
2026-08-14 – 2026-08-19 5 4 -$15.3M 3 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-05-13 Emanuel Ariel Chief Executive Officer +$2.0M Transaction at $185.09, now -0.4%
2026-05-18 KRAFT JONATHAN +$987,797.2 Transaction at $189.96, now -3.0%
2026-08-19 Schleimer Andrew M Chief Financial Officer -$1.9M Transaction at $194.39, now -5.2%
2026-08-19 SHAPIRO MARK S President and Chief Operating Officer. -$3.7M Transaction at $194.39, now -5.2%
2026-08-19 Emanuel Ariel Chief Executive Officer -$4.8M Transaction at $194.39, now -5.2%
2025-09-17 BYNOE PETER C B +$150,220 Transaction at $203.00, now -9.2%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (TKO) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for TKO on Trend Edge →