SPOT — Spotify Technology SA

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About Spotify Technology SA

Spotify Technology S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides audio streaming subscription services worldwide. It operates in two segments, Premium and Ad-Supported. The Premium segment offers online and offline streaming access to its catalog of music and podcasts, including video, lossless music, and audiobooks in select markets through subscription offerings primarily sold directly to end users and partners. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$417.83
Market Cap$87.89B
Float156.4M
Shares Outstanding205.6M
P/E (Forward)29.59
P/E (TTM)28.31
Price/Sales (TTM)5.01
vs. Analyst Target+42.9% to analyst PT
Profit Margin15.45%
Operating Margin (TTM)15.77%
Revenue (TTM)$17.53B
Earnings Growth (YoY)222.40%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$596.99 (40 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $7.88B -$581M $2.02B -$544M
2021 $9.67B -$34.0M $2.59B $416M
2022 $11.73B -$430M $2.93B -$158M
2023 $13.25B -$532M $3.40B -$309M
2024 $15.67B $1.14B $4.72B $1.50B
2025 $17.19B $2.21B $5.50B $2.36B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $4.19B -$86.0M
Sep 2025 $4.27B $899M
Dec 2025 $4.53B $1.17B
Mar 2026 $4.61B $733M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership23.0%
Institutional Ownership67.4%
Short Float4.1%
% of All Funds Holding15.14%
Number of Funds Holding1,169

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$490.72Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$579.94Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$579.63Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$345.94Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$557.94Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$563.42Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$390.98Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$585.00 resistance 1.21x 3 months ago
$766.00 resistance 1.10x 9 months ago
$383.00 support 1.97x 17 months ago
$314.00 support 1.17x 21 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (33 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.05% -2.94% 45.45% 14.91% -14.55%
1 Day 0.32% -1.84% 42.42% 16.17% -16.76%
1 Week 1.18% -0.70% 48.48% 27.72% -22.72%
2 Weeks 0.83% 1.26% 50.00% 26.10% -26.43%
1 Month 1.27% 2.76% 53.13% 30.71% -31.39%

Next earnings: July 28, 2026 (78 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan8.0%62.5%8
Feb1.7%62.5%8
Mar-3.3%25.0%8
Apr-0.8%37.5%8
May5.2%62.5%8
Jun11.5%87.5%8
Jul0.3%50.0%8
Aug1.2%62.5%8
Sep-6.0%37.5%8
Oct4.4%50.0%8
Nov2.5%37.5%8
Dec-1.8%37.5%8

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.07% 51.3% 382
Tuesday 0.17% 51.0% 418
Wednesday 0.17% 52.8% 415
Thursday -0.02% 51.5% 408
Friday 0.09% 53.5% 409

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 67.4%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 23.0%

Founder-led management: Daniel Ek (Founder & Executive Chairman), Martin Lorentzon (Co-Founder & Director)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings4
Net Value-$16.3M
Net Shares Change-925
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings4
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Soderstrom Gustav Co-Chief Executive Officer -$12.6M 2 N/A
Norstrom Alex Co-Chief Executive Officer -$3.7M 2 N/A

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-05-07 Soderstrom Gustav Co-Chief Executive Officer -$5.8M Transaction at $290.98, now +43.6%
2026-04-03 Soderstrom Gustav Co-Chief Executive Officer -$6.8M Transaction at $369.89, now +13.0%
2026-05-07 Norstrom Alex Co-Chief Executive Officer -$1.5M Transaction at $292.16, now +43.0%
2026-04-03 Norstrom Alex Co-Chief Executive Officer -$2.2M Transaction at $371.89, now +12.4%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Spotify Technology SA (SPOT) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for SPOT on Trend Edge →