SMPL — Simply Good Foods Co

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates SMPL Bearish with a Setup Score of 41, net conviction 43, actionability 39. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score41
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction43
Actionability39 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Simply Good Foods Co

The Simply Good Foods Company, a consumer-packaged food and beverage company, engages in the development, marketing, and sale of snacks and meal replacements, and other products in North America and internationally. The company offers protein bars, ready-to-drink beverages and shakes, sweet and salty snacks, cookies, muffins, protein chips and crackers, protein powders, and recipes under the Quest, Atkins, and OWYN brand names. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$10.95
Market Cap$972M
Float80.2M
Shares Outstanding88.4M
P/E (Forward)6.90
Price/Sales (TTM)0.70
vs. Analyst Target+35.8% to analyst PT
Profit Margin-14.28%
Operating Margin (TTM)12.78%
Revenue (TTM)$1.39B
Earnings Growth (YoY)-32.60%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$14.88 (12 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $817M $65.6M $309M $132M
2021 $1.01B $40.9M $393M $136M
2022 $1.17B $109M $428M $198M
2023 $1.24B $134M $436M $233M
2024 $1.33B $139M $495M $240M
2025 $1.45B $104M $509M $183M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Aug 2025 $369M -$12.4M
Nov 2025 $340M $25.3M
Feb 2026 $326M -$160M
May 2026 $357M -$52.0M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership9.2%
Institutional Ownership100.2%
Short Float9.2%
% of All Funds Holding3.40%
Number of Funds Holding299

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$11.53Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$14.67Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$22.62Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$30.91Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$14.92Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$23.26Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$29.85Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$13.50 resistance 1.25x 0 months ago
$13.40 resistance 1.07x 2 months ago
$16.80 resistance 1.19x 4 months ago
$18.70 resistance 1.31x 5 months ago
$24.90 resistance 1.68x 9 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (37 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.72% 0.59% 67.57% 5.84% -2.95%
1 Day 0.31% 0.39% 59.46% 7.83% -11.53%
1 Week 0.33% 0.68% 59.46% 8.11% -14.83%
2 Weeks 1.86% 2.29% 62.16% 13.22% -21.45%
1 Month 1.87% 1.80% 52.78% 20.04% -20.48%

Next earnings: October 22, 2026 (56 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan-6.9%11.1%9
Feb0.3%44.4%9
Mar-3.9%44.4%9
Apr2.3%55.6%9
May-3.2%22.2%9
Jun3.6%66.7%9
Jul2.2%55.6%9
Aug-1.2%33.3%9
Sep-1.4%33.3%9
Oct-1.8%33.3%9
Nov7.8%88.9%9
Dec6.5%66.7%9

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.01% 50.2% 430
Tuesday 0.17% 51.0% 473
Wednesday -0.09% 48.6% 469
Thursday -0.06% 51.0% 461
Friday 0.09% 51.3% 460

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 100.2%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 9.2%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings5
Net Value+$175,930.928
Net Shares Change103,316
% of Float0.1%
C-Suite Filings3
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
KILTS JAMES M +$991,480 1 1 buy
Bealer Christopher J Chief Financial Officer +$199,019.46 1 1 buy
Matthews Timothy Allen VP, Controller and CAO -$123,088.532 1 1 sell
DALEY CLAYTON C JR +$117,782 1 1 buy
Clawson Michael L Chief Commercial Officer +$100,000 1 1 buy

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-11-10 – 2025-11-19 3 3 +$175,930.928 3 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-05-18 DALEY CLAYTON C JR +$117,782 Transaction at $11.78, now -7.0%
2025-11-19 Clawson Michael L Chief Commercial Officer +$100,000 Transaction at $20.00, now -45.2%
2025-11-10 Bealer Christopher J Chief Financial Officer +$199,019.46 Transaction at $20.01, now -45.3%
2026-04-24 KILTS JAMES M +$991,480 Transaction at $12.39, now -11.6%
2025-11-12 Matthews Timothy Allen VP, Controller and CAO -$123,088.532 Transaction at $19.73, now -44.5%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Simply Good Foods Co (SMPL) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for SMPL on Trend Edge →