SMCI — Super Micro Computer Inc

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates SMCI Bearish with a Setup Score of 0, net conviction 23, actionability 0. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score0
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction23
Actionability0 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Super Micro Computer Inc

Super Micro Computer, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and sells server and storage solutions based on modular and open-standard architecture in the United States, Asia, Europe, and internationally. The company provides liquid and air-cooled AI servers for training and inferencing with integrated graphics processing units (GPUs) or PCIe based architectures; SuperBlade, MicroBlade, FlexTwin, GrandTwin, and BigTwin blade and multi-nod… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$28.31
Market Cap$18.27B
Float509.0M
Shares Outstanding646.9M
P/E (Forward)8.86
P/E (TTM)14.86
Price/Sales (TTM)0.54
vs. Analyst Target+31.6% to analyst PT
Profit Margin3.70%
Operating Margin (TTM)6.11%
Revenue (TTM)$33.70B
Earnings Growth (YoY)326.00%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$37.25 (18 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $3.34B $84.3M $526M $116M
2021 $5.20B $285M $800M $376M
2022 $5.20B $285M $800M $376M
2023 $7.12B $640M $1.28B $800M
2024 $14.94B $1.21B $2.11B $1.29B
2025 $21.97B $1.05B $2.43B $1.33B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $5.76B $195M
Sep 2025 $5.02B $168M
Dec 2025 $12.68B $401M
Mar 2026 $10.24B $483M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership12.9%
Institutional Ownership64.0%
Short Float18.9%
% of All Funds Holding8.27%
Number of Funds Holding680

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$33.70Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$33.38Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$37.46Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$37.34Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$33.05Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$36.73Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$41.61Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$45.00 resistance 2.04x 0 months ago
$27.70 support 1.34x 1 months ago
$70.00 resistance 1.42x 22 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (77 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 1.07% 2.00% 59.74% 18.08% -24.66%
1 Day 1.98% 0.77% 54.55% 35.94% -27.79%
1 Week 2.28% -0.23% 49.35% 53.51% -32.07%
2 Weeks 4.61% 1.54% 54.55% 86.11% -33.04%
1 Month 7.96% 3.10% 59.21% 135.73% -33.56%

Next earnings: August 4, 2026 (22 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan10.7%63.2%19
Feb8.9%52.6%19
Mar-1.0%47.4%19
Apr-0.7%50.0%20
May14.0%55.0%20
Jun0.3%50.0%20
Jul2.3%57.9%19
Aug-5.0%36.8%19
Sep1.5%52.6%19
Oct-4.2%52.6%19
Nov4.8%68.4%19
Dec3.9%63.2%19

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.28% 53.1% 911
Tuesday 0.23% 50.1% 996
Wednesday 0.15% 52.1% 994
Thursday -0.01% 50.3% 975
Friday 0.10% 49.8% 970

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 64.0%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 12.9%

Founder-led management: Charles Liang (Founder, Chairman of the Board, President & CEO), Wally Liaw (Senior Vice President, Business Development), Sara Liu (Co-Founder, Senior VP & Director)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings7
Net Value-$16.8M
Net Shares Change-448,630
% of Float-0.1%
C-Suite Filings5
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Liang Charles President and CEO -$12.0M 1 N/A
Liu Liang Chiu-Chu Sara -$12.0M 1 N/A
KAO GEORGE SVP, OPERATIONS -$2.9M 2 2 sell
WEIGAND DAVID E SVP, Chief Financial Officer -$1.9M 2 N/A
TUAN SHERMAN -$1.6M 1 1 sell

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2025-12-01 TUAN SHERMAN -$1.6M Transaction at $33.00, now -14.2%
2025-11-26 KAO GEORGE SVP, OPERATIONS -$1.3M Transaction at $21.45, now +32.0%
2025-08-26 KAO GEORGE SVP, OPERATIONS -$1.6M Transaction at $23.29, now +21.6%
2025-07-30 Liang Charles President and CEO -$12.0M Transaction at $60.00, now -52.8%
2025-07-30 Liu Liang Chiu-Chu Sara -$12.0M Transaction at $60.00, now -52.8%
2025-09-17 WEIGAND DAVID E SVP, Chief Financial Officer -$995,900 Transaction at $25.22, now +12.2%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for SMCI on Trend Edge →