SJM — The J. M. Smucker Company

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates SJM Bullish with a Setup Score of 10, net conviction 26, actionability 4. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score10
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction26
Actionability4 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About The J. M. Smucker Company

The J. M. Smucker Company manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products worldwide. The company operates through five segments: U.S. Retail Coffee, U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads, U.S. Retail Pet Foods, Sweet Baked Snacks, and Away From Home. It offers coffee, sweet baked goods, pet snacks, frozen handheld products, peanut butter, cat and dog food, fruit and specialty spreads, cookies, frozen sandwiches and snacks, hot bever… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$111.60
Market Cap$11.85B
Float104.4M
Shares Outstanding106.9M
P/E (Forward)11.25
Price/Sales (TTM)1.31
vs. Analyst Target+9.6% to analyst PT
Profit Margin-1.53%
Operating Margin (TTM)18.46%
Revenue (TTM)$9.05B
Earnings Growth (YoY)-2.60%
Dividend Rate4.4%
Analyst Target Price$122.31 (20 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2021 $8.00B $876M $3.14B $1.80B
2022 $8.00B $632M $2.70B $1.46B
2023 $8.53B -$91.3M $2.80B $574M
2024 $8.18B $744M $3.12B $1.69B
2025 $8.73B -$1.23B $3.38B -$156M
2026 $9.05B -$139M $3.03B $529M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jul 2025 $2.11B -$43.9M
Oct 2025 $2.33B $241M
Jan 2026 $2.34B -$724M
Apr 2026 $2.27B $388M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership2.3%
Institutional Ownership94.3%
Short Float5.0%
% of All Funds Holding9.30%
Number of Funds Holding764

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$108.08Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$104.06Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$106.49Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$121.60Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$104.81Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$107.38Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$116.57Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$115.00 resistance 1.05x 3 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (121 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.09% 0.00% 43.80% 2.95% -3.21%
1 Day 0.24% 0.23% 52.89% 5.33% -5.48%
1 Week 0.59% 0.73% 56.20% 15.44% -10.70%
2 Weeks 0.83% 0.97% 57.02% 18.12% -12.69%
1 Month 1.14% 1.36% 56.67% 28.86% -16.86%

Next earnings: August 26, 2026 (44 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan-0.4%50.0%32
Feb0.6%50.0%32
Mar1.7%68.8%32
Apr-0.4%43.8%32
May0.1%50.0%32
Jun1.2%53.1%32
Jul1.5%67.7%31
Aug0.3%51.6%31
Sep-0.3%41.9%31
Oct0.3%48.4%31
Nov1.6%59.4%32
Dec1.2%56.3%32

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.04% 49.2% 1498
Tuesday 0.07% 49.7% 1637
Wednesday -0.02% 46.2% 1636
Thursday 0.03% 48.2% 1603
Friday 0.12% 50.4% 1596

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 94.3%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 2.3%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings9
Net Value-$5.6M
Net Shares Change-41,957
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings8
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
SMUCKER MARK T CEO, Chair of Board -$2.3M 3 3 sell
Marshall Tucker H Chief Financial Officer -$1.6M 2 2 sell
Knudsen Jeannette L Chief Legal Officer -$1.1M 2 2 sell
Penrose Jill R Chief People Officer -$583,475 1 1 sell
AMIN TARANG +$99,800.8 1 1 buy

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-06-12 – 2026-06-25 3 3 -$2.5M 3 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-06-30 Penrose Jill R Chief People Officer -$583,475 Transaction at $116.69, now -4.4%
2026-06-29 Knudsen Jeannette L Chief Legal Officer -$500,943.24 Transaction at $115.08, now -3.0%
2026-06-25 Marshall Tucker H Chief Financial Officer -$403,111.5 Transaction at $111.05, now +0.5%
2026-06-18 SMUCKER MARK T CEO, Chair of Board -$1.5M Transaction at $115.11, now -3.0%
2026-06-12 Knudsen Jeannette L Chief Legal Officer -$645,409.5 Transaction at $116.29, now -4.0%
2026-03-03 AMIN TARANG +$99,800.8 Transaction at $113.41, now -1.6%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for SJM on Trend Edge →