SAM — Boston Beer Company Inc

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates SAM Bearish with a Setup Score of 43, net conviction 30, actionability 62. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score43
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction30
Actionability62 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Boston Beer Company Inc

The Boston Beer Company, Inc. produces and sells alcohol beverages primarily in the United States. Its flagship beer is Samuel Adams Boston Lager. The company offers various beers, hard ciders, spirits based ready to drink beverages, distilled spirits, flavored malt beverages, and hard seltzers under the Samuel Adams, Twisted Tea, Truly, Angry Orchard, Dogfish Head, and Sun Cruiser brand names. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$176.79
Market Cap$1.82B
Float6.8M
Shares Outstanding8.3M
P/E (Forward)17.92
Price/Sales (TTM)0.94
vs. Analyst Target+29.0% to analyst PT
Profit Margin-3.15%
Operating Margin (TTM)4.97%
Revenue (TTM)$1.95B
Earnings Growth (YoY)48.60%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$228.01 (14 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $1.74B $192M $814M $314M
2021 $2.06B $14.6M $798M $129M
2022 $2.09B $67.3M $862M $207M
2023 $2.01B $76.3M $852M $210M
2024 $2.01B $59.7M $894M $246M
2025 $2.09B $108M $953M $244M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $588M $60.4M
Sep 2025 $537M $46.2M
Dec 2025 $508M -$22.5M
Mar 2026 $434M -$145M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership9.2%
Institutional Ownership95.8%
Short Float23.7%
% of All Funds Holding4.12%
Number of Funds Holding339

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$181.44Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$209.83Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$219.53Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$283.40Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$203.59Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$218.76Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$270.17Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$212.00 resistance 1.53x 1 months ago
$301.00 resistance 1.15x 17 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (121 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -1.05% -0.14% 38.02% 11.35% -23.49%
1 Day -0.09% -0.54% 45.45% 25.94% -26.02%
1 Week -0.43% -0.59% 46.28% 33.09% -25.07%
2 Weeks -0.09% 1.09% 57.02% 34.79% -30.69%
1 Month 0.58% 1.31% 55.00% 32.83% -35.82%

Next earnings: July 23, 2026 (10 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan-1.9%45.2%31
Feb-0.7%54.8%31
Mar2.3%51.6%31
Apr2.2%58.1%31
May1.5%54.8%31
Jun2.7%61.3%31
Jul3.6%63.3%30
Aug0.3%46.7%30
Sep0.0%56.7%30
Oct2.4%63.3%30
Nov0.1%56.7%30
Dec0.8%38.7%31

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.00% 47.9% 1448
Tuesday 0.05% 47.9% 1582
Wednesday 0.00% 47.1% 1581
Thursday 0.01% 48.3% 1549
Friday 0.21% 51.1% 1542

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 95.8%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 9.2%

Founder-led management: Jim Koch (Chief Executive Officer)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings2
Net Value-$131,546.4
Net Shares Change-3,720
% of Float-0.1%
C-Suite Filings1
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Spillane Michael -$642,036.096 1 1 sell
Fritsch Annette N VP of Product Design and R&D -$131,546.4 1 1 sell

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2025-11-04 Spillane Michael -$642,036.096 Transaction at $205.78, now -14.1%
2025-08-11 Fritsch Annette N VP of Product Design and R&D -$131,546.4 Transaction at $219.24, now -19.4%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Boston Beer Company Inc (SAM) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for SAM on Trend Edge →