RILY — BRC Group Holdings, Inc.

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates RILY Bullish with a Setup Score of 23, net conviction 27, actionability 20. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score23
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction27
Actionability20 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About BRC Group Holdings, Inc.

BRC Group Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides financial services in North America, Australia, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia, and Latin America. The Capital Markets segment offers investment banking and institutional brokerage services; direct lending services to middle market companies; and equity research. This segment is also involved in trading equity securities; institutional sales and trading; securities lending; propr… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$7.12
Market Cap$279M
Float28.2M
Shares Outstanding40.2M
P/E (TTM)0.59
Price/Sales (TTM)0.26
vs. Analyst Target-78.9% to analyst PT
Profit Margin38.62%
Operating Margin (TTM)11.85%
Revenue (TTM)$1.07B
Earnings Growth (YoY)-90.00%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$1.50

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $834M $205M $719M $364M
2021 $1.55B $445M $1.42B $733M
2022 $994M -$160M $748M -$153M
2023 $1.64B -$99.9M $1.05B $178M
2024 $579M -$764M $132M -$578M
2025 $1.03B $307M $670M $357M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $235M $72.7M
Dec 2025 $307M $86.8M
Mar 2026 $451M $213M
Jun 2026 $247M $20.5M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership30.3%
Institutional Ownership45.1%
Short Float18.8%
% of All Funds Holding1.08%
Number of Funds Holding95

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$7.43Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$7.22Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$5.85Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$18.29Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$7.14Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$5.85Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$15.18Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$4.80 support 1.86x 6 months ago
$3.00 support 1.09x 12 months ago
$19.40 resistance 3.58x 23 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (67 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.66% 0.00% 40.30% 33.16% -16.47%
1 Day 1.96% 0.00% 43.28% 30.57% -16.47%
1 Week 3.20% 2.45% 62.69% 66.67% -32.64%
2 Weeks 2.97% 2.69% 61.19% 100.00% -31.47%
1 Month 4.95% 3.11% 59.09% 94.05% -52.94%

Next earnings: October 25, 2026 (61 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan5.9%73.7%19
Feb1.2%42.1%19
Mar-4.8%42.1%19
Apr4.8%68.4%19
May7.1%63.2%19
Jun1.5%42.1%19
Jul1.7%36.8%19
Aug-10.9%38.9%18
Sep-1.5%36.8%19
Oct-0.4%36.8%19
Nov3.2%52.6%19
Dec0.0%57.9%19

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.03% 36.9% 898
Tuesday 0.15% 37.3% 983
Wednesday 0.27% 38.0% 982
Thursday -0.12% 33.0% 962
Friday 0.00% 37.0% 957

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 45.1%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 30.3%

Founder-led management: Bryant Riley (Co-Founder, Chairman & Co-CEO), Tom Kelleher (Co-Founder, Co-CEO & Director)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings2
Net Value-$2.6M
Net Shares Change-295,492
% of Float-1.0%
C-Suite Filings2
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
RILEY BRYANT R Chairman and Co-CEO -$1.8M 1 1 sell
Forman Alan N EVP, General Counsel, Sec -$856,690 1 1 sell

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-06-16 RILEY BRYANT R Chairman and Co-CEO -$1.8M Transaction at $9.00, now -20.9%
2026-05-15 Forman Alan N EVP, General Counsel, Sec -$856,690 Transaction at $8.57, now -16.9%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for BRC Group Holdings, Inc. (RILY) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for RILY on Trend Edge →