PAG — Penske Automotive Group Inc

✨ Hidden Gem Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates PAG Bullish with a Setup Score of 0, net conviction 41, actionability 0. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score0
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction41
Actionability0 (extended)

Key signals behind this score

About Penske Automotive Group Inc

Penske Automotive Group, Inc., a diversified transportation services company, operates automotive and commercial truck dealerships in the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Retail Automotive, Retail Commercial Truck, Other, and Non-Automotive Investments. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$194.27
Market Cap$12.59B
Float17.6M
Shares Outstanding65.7M
P/E (Forward)13.61
P/E (TTM)13.84
Price/Sales (TTM)0.40
vs. Analyst Target-3.0% to analyst PT
Profit Margin2.88%
Operating Margin (TTM)3.68%
Revenue (TTM)$31.72B
Earnings Growth (YoY)-7.80%
Dividend Rate5.7%
Analyst Target Price$188.50 (11 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $20.44B $544M $3.18B $980M
2021 $25.55B $1.19B $4.44B $1.82B
2022 $27.81B $1.38B $4.84B $2.11B
2023 $30.92B $1.11B $5.15B $1.85B
2024 $31.86B $969M $5.22B $1.73B
2025 $31.81B $935M $5.22B $1.70B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $7.66B $250M
Sep 2025 $7.70B $213M
Dec 2025 $8.85B $228M
Mar 2026 $7.86B $235M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership21.1%
Institutional Ownership80.0%
Short Float14.2%
% of All Funds Holding4.27%
Number of Funds Holding351

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$175.12Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$164.27Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$165.24Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$154.57Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$165.60Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$165.21Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$160.87Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$167.00 support 1.12x 0 months ago
$149.00 support 1.04x 2 months ago
$144.00 support 1.59x 14 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (118 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.17% 0.14% 56.78% 4.23% -7.40%
1 Day -0.18% -0.03% 48.31% 14.44% -19.19%
1 Week 0.22% -0.01% 49.15% 28.64% -19.94%
2 Weeks 0.20% 0.24% 51.69% 22.58% -27.97%
1 Month 1.20% 0.57% 52.14% 46.40% -27.71%

Next earnings: July 29, 2026 (16 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan0.2%46.7%30
Feb0.9%46.7%30
Mar0.3%43.3%30
Apr10.4%73.3%30
May0.8%50.0%30
Jun1.3%60.0%30
Jul5.2%55.2%29
Aug-0.7%55.2%29
Sep-0.1%55.2%29
Oct-1.5%44.8%29
Nov-1.0%53.3%30
Dec2.5%56.7%30

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.11% 51.0% 1405
Tuesday 0.17% 49.9% 1534
Wednesday 0.00% 49.1% 1532
Thursday 0.06% 48.4% 1503
Friday 0.03% 48.0% 1495

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 80.0%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 21.1%

Founder-led management: Roger Penske (Chairman & CEO)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings7
Net Value-$1.8M
Net Shares Change-15,114
% of Float-0.1%
C-Suite Filings4
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Hulgrave Michelle EVP & CFO -$1.3M 3 3 sell
Spradlin Shane M. EVP, Gen. Counsel & Sec. -$552,904.2 1 1 sell
Pierce Sandra E. -$300,028.2 1 1 sell
Davis Lisa Ann -$289,906.96 1 1 sell
SMITH GREG C -$238,110.504 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-08-15 – 2025-08-29 4 4 -$1.3M 2 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-06-03 Hulgrave Michelle EVP & CFO -$720,953.07 Transaction at $171.12, now +13.5%
2026-05-20 SMITH GREG C -$238,110.504 Transaction at $160.02, now +21.4%
2025-11-25 Hulgrave Michelle EVP & CFO -$336,350.49 Transaction at $160.17, now +21.3%
2025-08-20 Hulgrave Michelle EVP & CFO -$200,805.55 Transaction at $182.55, now +6.4%
2025-08-15 Spradlin Shane M. EVP, Gen. Counsel & Sec. -$552,904.2 Transaction at $184.30, now +5.4%
2025-08-29 Pierce Sandra E. -$300,028.2 Transaction at $187.05, now +3.9%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Penske Automotive Group Inc (PAG) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for PAG on Trend Edge →