NHC — National HealthCare Corporation

✨ Hidden Gem

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates NHC Bullish with a Setup Score of 34, net conviction 52, actionability 22. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score34
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction52
Actionability22 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About National HealthCare Corporation

National HealthCare Corporation engages in the operation of services to skilled nursing facilities, assisted and independent living facilities, homecare and hospice agencies, and health hospitals. It operates through two segments: Inpatient and Homecare and Hospice Services. The company's skilled nursing facilities offer licensed therapy services, nutrition services, social services, activities, and housekeeping and laundry services, as well as m… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$225.09
Market Cap$3.71B
Float12.7M
Shares Outstanding15.7M
P/E (Forward)9.89
P/E (TTM)26.31
Price/Sales (TTM)2.38
vs. Analyst Target-97.3% to analyst PT
Profit Margin9.00%
Operating Margin (TTM)11.99%
Revenue (TTM)$1.56B
Earnings Growth (YoY)67.10%
Dividend Rate2.7%
Analyst Target Price$6.15

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $981M $41.9M $371M $95.8M
2021 $1.01B $139M $345M $192M
2022 $1.07B $22.4M $388M $68.3M
2023 $1.14B $66.8M $429M $131M
2024 $1.30B $102M $487M $183M
2025 $1.52B $120M $597M $214M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $383M $39.2M
Dec 2025 $387M $24.8M
Mar 2026 $382M $35.9M
Jun 2026 $408M $40.3M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership18.9%
Institutional Ownership66.8%
Short Float5.9%
% of All Funds Holding2.82%
Number of Funds Holding248

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$221.29Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$177.29Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$141.90Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$108.49Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$175.99Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$140.23Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$117.29Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$184.00 support 1.78x 1 months ago
$157.00 support 1.46x 3 months ago
$144.00 support 1.00x 5 months ago
$113.00 support 1.43x 10 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (122 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.07% 0.04% 50.82% 7.40% -9.69%
1 Day 0.38% 0.15% 54.92% 15.48% -14.51%
1 Week -0.31% 0.03% 50.82% 10.16% -28.85%
2 Weeks -0.07% 0.71% 58.20% 24.55% -32.69%
1 Month 0.57% 0.21% 52.07% 22.67% -45.37%

Next earnings: October 30, 2026 (64 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan-0.7%53.8%39
Feb0.8%50.0%40
Mar0.9%42.5%40
Apr0.4%47.5%40
May2.0%57.5%40
Jun4.4%67.5%40
Jul0.0%50.0%40
Aug-0.8%43.6%39
Sep-0.2%46.2%39
Oct-0.7%51.3%39
Nov3.5%64.1%39
Dec4.1%56.4%39

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.04% 45.8% 1883
Tuesday 0.09% 45.0% 2049
Wednesday 0.05% 45.5% 2047
Thursday -0.02% 44.5% 2010
Friday 0.14% 44.5% 1996

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 66.8%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 18.9%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings10
Net Value-$1.1M
Net Shares Change-32,005
% of Float-0.3%
C-Suite Filings4
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
HASSAN EMIL E -$3.3M 4 4 sell
LAROCHE RICHARD F JR -$1.5M 1 1 sell
Shelly Timothy J. Sr.VP Operations -$707,580.893 2 2 sell
Flatt Stephen Fowler CEO -$385,999.18 2 2 sell
Piercey Lisa +$174,858.849 1 1 buy

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-05-20 – 2026-06-02 3 3 -$1.7M 1 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-06-02 Piercey Lisa +$174,858.849 Transaction at $184.26, now +22.2%
2026-08-19 Flatt Stephen Fowler CEO -$355,620 Transaction at $237.08, now -5.1%
2026-06-23 HASSAN EMIL E -$1.2M Transaction at $200.00, now +12.5%
2026-06-18 HASSAN EMIL E -$312,560.925 Transaction at $199.97, now +12.6%
2026-05-20 Shelly Timothy J. Sr.VP Operations -$365,444.213 Transaction at $197.22, now +14.1%
2026-05-22 LAROCHE RICHARD F JR -$1.5M Transaction at $195.14, now +15.3%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for NHC on Trend Edge →