NBIX — Neurocrine Biosciences Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates NBIX Bullish with a Setup Score of 53, net conviction 66, actionability 42. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score53
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction66
Actionability42 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Neurocrine Biosciences Inc

Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. discovers, develops, and commercialize pharmaceuticals for neurological, psychiatric, endocrine, and immunological disorders in the United States and internationally. The company's products include INGREZZA for tardive dyskinesia and chorea associated with Huntington's disease; Orilissa tablets for endometriosis; Oriahnn capsules to treat uterine fibroids; and CRENESSITY to treat congenital adrenal hyperplasia, as wel… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$153.37
Market Cap$15.55B
Float100.4M
Shares Outstanding101.6M
P/E (Forward)22.99
P/E (TTM)22.72
Price/Sales (TTM)4.61
vs. Analyst Target+37.9% to analyst PT
Profit Margin20.91%
Operating Margin (TTM)22.19%
Revenue (TTM)$3.37B
Earnings Growth (YoY)31.10%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$211.57 (25 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $1.05B $407M $1.04B $148M
2021 $1.13B $89.6M $1.12B $138M
2022 $1.49B $155M $1.47B $265M
2023 $1.89B $250M $1.85B $416M
2024 $2.36B $341M $2.32B $640M
2025 $2.86B $479M $2.81B $667M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $795M $210M
Dec 2025 $806M $154M
Mar 2026 $815M $198M
Jun 2026 $959M $144M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership1.1%
Institutional Ownership102.8%
Short Float4.4%
% of All Funds Holding8.72%
Number of Funds Holding767

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$165.54Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$147.20Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$137.05Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$127.25Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$147.27Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$138.08Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$130.35Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$132.00 support 1.18x 2 months ago
$108.00 support 1.31x 14 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (121 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.03% 0.00% 47.93% 16.61% -30.37%
1 Day -0.49% -0.73% 41.32% 19.45% -30.01%
1 Week 0.52% 0.36% 50.41% 24.51% -23.58%
2 Weeks 1.12% -0.36% 48.76% 30.30% -28.91%
1 Month 2.45% 1.62% 57.50% 139.29% -69.47%

Next earnings: October 18, 2026 (53 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan6.4%50.0%30
Feb-1.5%30.0%30
Mar-0.9%40.0%30
Apr-1.2%33.3%30
May5.4%60.0%30
Jun2.1%54.8%31
Jul-0.2%48.4%31
Aug2.3%53.3%30
Sep2.7%56.7%30
Oct3.0%56.7%30
Nov3.9%60.0%30
Dec4.0%63.3%30

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.15% 46.4% 1432
Tuesday 0.11% 48.8% 1563
Wednesday 0.15% 49.3% 1561
Thursday 0.15% 48.8% 1530
Friday 0.27% 51.6% 1524

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 102.8%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 1.1%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings22
Net Value-$13.5M
Net Shares Change-57,205
% of Float-0.1%
C-Suite Filings12
Clusters Detected3

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
GORMAN KEVIN CHARLES -$29.0M 1 N/A
Cooke Julie Chief Human Resources Officer -$3.7M 1 N/A
Gano Kyle Chief Executive Officer -$3.5M 1 N/A
SHERWIN STEPHEN A -$2.5M 1 N/A
POPS RICHARD F -$1.6M 1 N/A
LYONS GARY A -$1.6M 1 N/A
Delaet Ingrid Chief Regulatory Officer -$1.1M 1 N/A
Norwalk Leslie V -$625,561.064 2 N/A

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-11-26 – 2025-12-10 3 3 -$3.5M 1 C-suite
2026-05-14 – 2026-05-28 5 5 -$32.6M 2 C-suite
2026-06-02 – 2026-06-09 5 5 -$7.5M 3 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-06-04 Cooke Julie Chief Human Resources Officer -$3.7M Transaction at $118.85, now +29.0%
2026-05-28 Boyer David W. Chief Corp. Affairs Officer -$609,023.318 Transaction at $156.64, now -2.1%
2026-05-14 Norwalk Leslie V -$590,601.054 Transaction at $155.01, now -1.1%
2025-12-17 Norwalk Leslie V -$34,960.01 Transaction at $121.93, now +25.8%
2026-05-21 GORMAN KEVIN CHARLES -$29.0M Transaction at $98.79, now +55.3%
2026-07-09 Delaet Ingrid Chief Regulatory Officer -$1.1M Transaction at $141.09, now +8.7%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Neurocrine Biosciences Inc (NBIX) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for NBIX on Trend Edge →