MERC — Mercer International Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About Mercer International Inc

Mercer International Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells northern bleached softwood kraft (NBSK) and northern bleached hardwood kraft (NBHK) pulp in the United States, Germany, China, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Pulp and Solid Wood. The company manufactures, sells, and distributes pulp, electricity, and chemicals through pulp mills. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$1.04
Market Cap$65.2M
Float55.0M
Shares Outstanding67.0M
P/E (Forward)11.71
Price/Sales (TTM)0.04
vs. Analyst Target-3.8% to analyst PT
Profit Margin-28.51%
Operating Margin (TTM)-6.72%
Revenue (TTM)$1.85B
Earnings Growth (YoY)-72.90%
Dividend Rate0.3%
Analyst Target Price$1.00 (4 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $1.42B -$17.2M $131M $193M
2021 $1.80B $171M $426M $479M
2022 $2.28B $247M $498M $561M
2023 $1.99B -$242M -$31.9M -$9.1M
2024 $2.04B -$85.1M $189M $15.0M
2025 $1.87B -$498M -$67.6M -$22.0M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $454M -$86.1M
Sep 2025 $458M -$80.8M
Dec 2025 $450M -$309M
Mar 2026 $489M -$52.0M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership28.2%
Institutional Ownership47.7%
Short Float5.7%
% of All Funds Holding0.88%
Number of Funds Holding72

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$1.14Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$1.99Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$3.60Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$7.38Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$1.95Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$3.74Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$6.29Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$2.00 resistance 1.10x 2 months ago
$2.80 resistance 1.09x 6 months ago
$4.40 resistance 1.53x 11 months ago
$6.10 resistance 1.17x 12 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (111 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.54% -0.45% 36.94% 10.91% -10.04%
1 Day -0.21% -0.91% 37.84% 32.41% -18.60%
1 Week 0.83% -1.75% 39.64% 92.73% -42.31%
2 Weeks 0.66% -0.71% 45.95% 84.21% -62.50%
1 Month 4.74% -0.83% 46.36% 432.73% -32.69%

Next earnings: July 26, 2026 (61 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan5.5%63.2%38
Feb4.3%63.2%38
Mar-0.5%44.7%38
Apr-2.3%42.1%38
May1.3%43.2%37
Jun-5.0%24.3%37
Jul-0.0%45.9%37
Aug11.1%52.6%38
Sep-3.9%42.1%38
Oct-1.6%36.8%38
Nov3.6%52.6%38
Dec2.2%57.9%38

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.12% 41.1% 1795
Tuesday 0.04% 42.2% 1954
Wednesday -0.05% 42.5% 1952
Thursday 0.05% 43.2% 1917
Friday 0.29% 46.3% 1909

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 47.7%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 28.2%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings11
Net Value+$30,160
Net Shares Change3,009,560
% of Float5.5%
C-Suite Filings1
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
KELLOGG PETER R +$5.5M 5 6 buy
WELTY LINDA J +$30,866 1 1 buy
BUENO ESTRADA JUAN CARLOS President and CEO +$30,160 1 1 buy
Laberge Alice +$13,837.2 3 3 buy

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-05-20 KELLOGG PETER R +$672,420 Transaction at $0.96, now +8.3%
2026-05-15 KELLOGG PETER R +$262,410 Transaction at $0.87, now +18.9%
2026-02-27 Laberge Alice +$1,900 Transaction at $1.90, now -45.3%
2025-12-09 KELLOGG PETER R +$1.9M Transaction at $1.96, now -46.9%
2026-03-10 KELLOGG PETER R +$236,600 Transaction at $3.38, now -69.2%
2025-06-13 BUENO ESTRADA JUAN CARLOS President and CEO +$30,160 Transaction at $3.77, now -72.4%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Mercer International Inc (MERC) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for MERC on Trend Edge →