MED — MEDIFAST INC

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates MED Bearish with a Setup Score of 59, net conviction 25, actionability 137. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score59
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction25
Actionability137 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About MEDIFAST INC

Medifast, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a health and wellness company that provides habit-based and coach-guided lifestyle solutions for weight loss in the United States. The company offers weight loss, weight management, and healthy living products comprising bars, cereals, snack straws, hot chocolate, hearty choices, oatmeal, pancakes, puddings, soft serves, shakes, smoothies, soft bakes, soups, amino acid blends, whey protein, ho… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$12.16
Market Cap$130M
Float8.5M
Shares Outstanding11.2M
P/E (Forward)12.48
Price/Sales (TTM)0.41
vs. Analyst Target-1.3% to analyst PT
Profit Margin-8.08%
Operating Margin (TTM)-5.66%
Revenue (TTM)$317M
Earnings Growth (YoY)-87.20%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$12.00 (1 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $935M $103M $698M $141M
2021 $1.53B $164M $1.13B $223M
2022 $1.60B $144M $1.14B $196M
2023 $1.07B $99.4M $776M $142M
2024 $602M $2.1M $445M $16.5M
2025 $386M -$18.7M $275M $4.9M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $89.4M -$2.3M
Dec 2025 $75.1M -$18.1M
Mar 2026 $76.0M -$2.1M
Jun 2026 $76.4M -$3.1M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership4.2%
Institutional Ownership75.7%
Short Float17.6%
% of All Funds Holding1.27%
Number of Funds Holding112

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$11.01Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$11.16Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$12.28Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$41.29Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$10.98Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$12.40Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$30.15Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$12.20 resistance 1.23x 1 months ago
$25.80 resistance 2.03x 25 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (111 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -1.27% -0.23% 35.14% 23.51% -34.31%
1 Day -0.03% -0.77% 37.84% 34.29% -35.48%
1 Week 1.18% -1.03% 43.24% 77.27% -36.00%
2 Weeks 0.92% -0.83% 46.85% 81.82% -42.86%
1 Month 5.31% 0.15% 50.00% 131.82% -53.85%

Next earnings: October 22, 2026 (56 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan6.0%42.4%33
Feb2.1%45.5%33
Mar-0.7%33.3%33
Apr3.6%60.6%33
May8.3%48.5%33
Jun1.7%36.4%33
Jul8.6%57.6%33
Aug-3.0%37.5%32
Sep-2.3%37.5%32
Oct3.8%50.0%32
Nov1.0%43.8%32
Dec1.8%43.8%32

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.08% 41.9% 1545
Tuesday 0.74% 45.3% 1687
Wednesday -0.08% 42.4% 1685
Thursday 0.35% 43.0% 1653
Friday 0.16% 43.6% 1646

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 75.7%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 4.2%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings3
Net Value-$108,558.962
Net Shares Change107,152
% of Float1.3%
C-Suite Filings1
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Kiai Parsa +$842,697.619 1 1 buy
Chard Daniel R Chairman & CEO -$108,558.962 1 1 buy
SCHLACKMAN SCOTT +$62,950 1 1 buy

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-08-21 Kiai Parsa +$842,697.619 Transaction at $11.63, now +4.6%
2026-03-27 Chard Daniel R Chairman & CEO -$108,558.962 Transaction at $9.87, now +23.2%
2026-05-12 SCHLACKMAN SCOTT +$62,950 Transaction at $12.59, now -3.4%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for MEDIFAST INC (MED) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for MED on Trend Edge →