MED — MEDIFAST INC

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About MEDIFAST INC

Medifast, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a health and wellness company that provides habit-based and coach-guided lifestyle solutions to address weight loss in the United States. The company offers weight loss, weight management, and healthy living products comprising bars, cereals, snack straws, hot chocolate, hearty choices, oatmeal, pancakes, puddings, soft serves, shakes, smoothies, soft bakes, soups, essential amino acid blends,… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$12.72
Market Cap$140M
Float8.4M
Shares Outstanding11.1M
P/E (Forward)12.48
Price/Sales (TTM)0.41
vs. Analyst Target-5.7% to analyst PT
Profit Margin-5.79%
Operating Margin (TTM)-7.21%
Revenue (TTM)$346M
Earnings Growth (YoY)-87.20%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$12.00 (1 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $935M $103M $698M $141M
2021 $1.53B $164M $1.13B $223M
2022 $1.60B $144M $1.14B $196M
2023 $1.07B $99.4M $776M $140M
2024 $602M $2.1M $445M $15.6M
2025 $386M -$18.7M $275M -$3.7M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $106M $2.5M
Sep 2025 $89.4M -$2.3M
Dec 2025 $75.1M -$18.1M
Mar 2026 $76.0M -$2.1M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership3.9%
Institutional Ownership78.8%
Short Float24.2%
% of All Funds Holding1.28%
Number of Funds Holding105

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$11.36Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$11.75Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$13.26Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$48.54Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$11.71Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$13.57Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$37.03Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$25.80 resistance 2.03x 22 months ago
$38.40 resistance 1.64x 24 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (110 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -1.49% -0.29% 34.55% 19.71% -34.31%
1 Day -0.34% -0.80% 37.27% 30.88% -35.48%
1 Week 1.01% -1.14% 42.73% 77.27% -36.00%
2 Weeks 0.79% -0.88% 46.36% 81.82% -42.86%
1 Month 5.23% 0.00% 49.54% 131.82% -53.85%

Next earnings: July 23, 2026 (56 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan6.0%42.4%33
Feb2.1%45.5%33
Mar-0.7%33.3%33
Apr3.6%60.6%33
May8.1%46.9%32
Jun2.3%37.5%32
Jul9.1%59.4%32
Aug-3.0%37.5%32
Sep-2.3%37.5%32
Oct3.8%50.0%32
Nov1.0%43.8%32
Dec1.8%43.8%32

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.08% 41.7% 1532
Tuesday 0.73% 45.4% 1675
Wednesday -0.07% 42.5% 1672
Thursday 0.35% 43.0% 1640
Friday 0.16% 43.6% 1635

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 78.8%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 3.9%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings3
Net Value-$103,556.432
Net Shares Change35,046
% of Float0.4%
C-Suite Filings2
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Chard Daniel R Chairman and CEO -$103,556.432 2 2 buy
SCHLACKMAN SCOTT +$62,950 1 1 buy

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-05-12 SCHLACKMAN SCOTT +$62,950 Transaction at $12.59, now +1.0%
2026-03-27 Chard Daniel R Chairman and CEO -$108,558.962 Transaction at $9.87, now +28.8%
2025-06-17 Chard Daniel R Chairman and CEO +$5,002.53 Transaction at $13.13, now -3.1%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for MEDIFAST INC (MED) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for MED on Trend Edge →