LVWR — LiveWire Group Inc.

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates LVWR Bearish with a Setup Score of 0, net conviction 53, actionability 0. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score0
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction53
Actionability0 (extended)

Key signals behind this score

About LiveWire Group Inc.

LiveWire Group, Inc. manufactures and sells electric motorcycles in the United States, Austria, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Electric Motorcycles and STACYC. It designs and sells electric motorcycles and parts, accessories, and apparel; electric balance bikes for kids; and adult pedal assist electric bikes. The company sells its products to wholesale, independent dealers and retailers, and independent distributors, a… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$1.35
Market Cap$279M
Float13.5M
Shares Outstanding205.4M
Price/Sales (TTM)8.93
vs. Analyst Target+437.0% to analyst PT
Profit Margin-234.48%
Operating Margin (TTM)-194.37%
Revenue (TTM)$31.3M
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$7.25 (1 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $30.9M -$77.6M -$25.0M -$73.1M
2021 $35.8M -$68.3M -$2.6M -$63.1M
2022 $46.8M -$78.9M $2.9M -$74.1M
2023 $38.0M -$110M -$78.0M -$188M
2024 $26.6M -$93.9M -$12.8M -$83.8M
2025 $25.7M -$75.1M -$4.4M -$64.5M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $5.7M -$19.4M
Dec 2025 $11.4M -$17.6M
Mar 2026 $5.1M -$18.1M
Jun 2026 $9.1M -$18.2M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership94.1%
Institutional Ownership2.2%
Short Float28.9%
% of All Funds Holding0.69%
Number of Funds Holding61

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$1.19Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$2.10Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$2.85Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$5.74Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$2.19Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$2.90Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$5.63Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$1.20 support 8.82x 0 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (23 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 4.24% 0.00% 43.48% 64.29% -5.08%
1 Day 5.48% 0.10% 52.17% 89.61% -7.79%
1 Week 4.00% -0.10% 47.83% 135.06% -35.06%
2 Weeks -2.12% -0.20% 43.48% 40.26% -24.68%
1 Month 6.55% -0.03% 50.00% 268.83% -33.90%

Next earnings: November 4, 2026 (67 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

Insufficient historical data for monthly seasonality analysis (requires 7+ years of data).

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.02% 43.9% 269
Tuesday 0.11% 43.0% 298
Wednesday 0.25% 45.5% 297
Thursday -0.35% 41.9% 289
Friday 0.36% 43.4% 288

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 2.2%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 94.1%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings5
Net Value-$579,521.898
Net Shares Change-346,866
% of Float-2.6%
C-Suite Filings3
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Donnez Karim Chief Executive Officer -$537,128.643 1 1 sell
Gruner Kjell -$212,530.66 1 1 sell
Nienhuis Jeremiah Head of Strat. & Product Ops. -$25,498.159 1 1 sell
Bekefy Jon Head of Global Sales & Mktg. -$16,895.096 1 1 sell
Cornog William L -$486 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-07-31 – 2026-08-04 4 4 -$775,643.461 2 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-07-31 Donnez Karim Chief Executive Officer -$537,128.643 Transaction at $2.33, now -42.1%
2026-07-31 Nienhuis Jeremiah Head of Strat. & Product Ops. -$25,498.159 Transaction at $2.38, now -43.2%
2026-08-03 Gruner Kjell -$212,530.66 Transaction at $2.10, now -35.7%
2026-08-04 Cornog William L -$486 Transaction at $2.25, now -40.0%
2025-12-09 Bekefy Jon Head of Global Sales & Mktg. -$16,895.096 Transaction at $4.02, now -66.4%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for LVWR on Trend Edge →