HOG — Harley-Davidson Inc

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About Harley-Davidson Inc

Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells motorcycles in the United States and internationally. The company operates in three segments: Harley-Davidson Motor Company, LiveWire, and Harley-Davidson Financial Services. The Harley-Davidson Motor Company segment designs, manufactures, and sells motorcycles, including cruiser, trike, Grand American touring, standard, sportbike, adventure touring, and dual sport, as well as motorcycle parts, accesso… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$23.21
Market Cap$2.44B
Float104.1M
Shares Outstanding105.3M
P/E (Forward)20.58
P/E (TTM)12.02
Price/Sales (TTM)0.57
vs. Analyst Target+9.7% to analyst PT
Profit Margin5.34%
Operating Margin (TTM)3.12%
Revenue (TTM)$4.32B
Earnings Growth (YoY)-79.40%
Dividend Rate0.7%
Analyst Target Price$25.45 (16 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $4.05B $1.3M $1.37B $201M
2021 $5.34B $650M $1.90B $1.02B
2022 $5.76B $741M $2.13B $1.11B
2023 $5.84B $707M $2.18B $1.06B
2024 $5.19B $455M $1.81B $709M
2025 $4.47B $339M $1.35B $492M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $1.31B $108M
Sep 2025 $1.34B $377M
Dec 2025 $496M -$279M
Mar 2026 $1.17B $24.8M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership1.1%
Institutional Ownership107.7%
Short Float13.2%
% of All Funds Holding4.49%
Number of Funds Holding369

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$23.18Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$23.40Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$24.85Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$32.19Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$23.41Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$25.12Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$30.51Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$20.30 support 1.20x 0 months ago
$17.50 support 1.73x 1 months ago
$24.20 resistance 1.36x 4 months ago
$30.20 resistance 1.06x 15 months ago
$38.30 resistance 1.19x 18 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (121 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.62% 0.22% 59.50% 7.92% -3.95%
1 Day 0.47% 0.00% 49.59% 11.93% -6.50%
1 Week 1.53% 1.09% 61.16% 21.04% -24.53%
2 Weeks 1.36% 0.23% 52.89% 24.35% -12.33%
1 Month 0.78% 1.06% 55.83% 22.50% -44.08%

Next earnings: July 24, 2026 (57 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan-0.3%42.5%40
Feb2.7%52.5%40
Mar2.8%62.5%40
Apr4.6%62.5%40
May-0.4%41.0%39
Jun0.4%51.3%39
Jul6.4%74.4%39
Aug-0.6%42.5%40
Sep-1.0%40.0%40
Oct1.0%55.0%40
Nov1.9%62.5%40
Dec1.1%60.0%40

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.01% 46.8% 1894
Tuesday 0.17% 49.0% 2061
Wednesday 0.17% 50.1% 2060
Thursday 0.00% 48.9% 2020
Friday 0.01% 47.5% 2011

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 107.7%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 1.1%

Founder-led management: William Davidson (Special Advisor to the CEO and Brand Ambassador)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings10
Net Value-$280,512.645
Net Shares Change-2,434
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings6
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Starrs Artie President and CEO +$286,500 1 1 buy
Mansfield Luke Christopher Chief Commercial Officer -$266,954.1 1 1 sell
Do Charles Sr. Vice President, HDFSI -$221,772.205 2 2 sell
FARLEY JR JAMES D -$120,780.156 1 1 sell
Masood Rafeh +$99,706.08 2 2 buy
Flees Lori Ann +$75,545.6 1 1 buy
Krause Paul J Chief Legal Officer -$40,664 1 N/A
Root Jonathan R CFO and CCO -$37,622.34 1 N/A

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-02-26 – 2026-03-09 4 4 +$291,215.444 1 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-03-09 Starrs Artie President and CEO +$286,500 Transaction at $19.10, now +21.5%
2026-03-09 Flees Lori Ann +$75,545.6 Transaction at $18.89, now +22.9%
2026-03-02 Masood Rafeh +$49,950 Transaction at $18.00, now +28.9%
2026-02-26 FARLEY JR JAMES D -$120,780.156 Transaction at $18.71, now +24.0%
2026-03-16 Do Charles Sr. Vice President, HDFSI -$76,740.895 Transaction at $18.09, now +28.3%
2025-08-07 Masood Rafeh +$49,756.08 Transaction at $24.06, now -3.5%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for HOG on Trend Edge →