KG — Kestrel Group, Ltd.

✨ Hidden Gem

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About Kestrel Group, Ltd.

Kestrel Group Ltd engages in provision of fronting services to insurance program managers, managing general agencies, reinsurers, and reinsurance brokers in Bermuda. The company operates through two segments: Program Services and Legacy Reinsurance. The company is based in Hamilton, Bermuda. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$11.92
Market Cap$91.5M
Float1.6M
Shares Outstanding7.8M
P/E (TTM)2.13
Price/Sales (TTM)2.11
Profit Margin91.45%
Operating Margin (TTM)-44.94%
Revenue (TTM)$43.4M
Dividend RateNone

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $187M $41.8M $187M $55.9M
2021 $98.7M $25.6M $98.7M $38.2M
2022 $58.1M -$60.4M $58.1M -$41.1M
2023 $1.3M -$4.2M -$2.2M -$4.4M
2024 $5.2M $324,273 $1.8M $141,762
2025 $34.0M $46.7M $25.1M $59.6M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $546,000 $69.9M
Sep 2025 $20.3M -$5.1M
Dec 2025 $10.2M -$17.8M
Mar 2026 $10.2M -$7.4M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership48.5%
Institutional Ownership111.5%
Short Float9.3%
% of All Funds Holding0.47%
Number of Funds Holding39

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$10.93Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$15.35Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$19.35Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$31.67Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$15.89Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$20.72Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$29.97Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$15.10 resistance 1.01x 1 months ago
$33.00 resistance 1.08x 15 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (30 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.81% 0.54% 56.67% 27.34% -34.66%
1 Day 1.26% -0.21% 46.67% 33.81% -31.82%
1 Week 1.98% -1.59% 43.33% 73.38% -30.58%
2 Weeks 1.60% -5.63% 43.33% 51.75% -39.39%
1 Month 3.02% 4.31% 56.67% 68.35% -50.85%

Next earnings: July 27, 2026 (59 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan-0.4%55.6%18
Feb-0.9%33.3%18
Mar-0.3%55.6%18
Apr7.5%38.9%18
May1.2%52.9%17
Jun0.9%50.0%18
Jul3.3%72.2%18
Aug-7.3%33.3%18
Sep-2.5%33.3%18
Oct-0.6%55.6%18
Nov4.6%55.6%18
Dec-2.2%55.6%18

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.12% 46.7% 851
Tuesday 0.09% 46.7% 935
Wednesday -0.03% 44.0% 932
Thursday 0.05% 47.9% 913
Friday 0.14% 46.4% 910

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 111.5%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 48.5%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings1
Net Value-$126,980.04
Net Shares Change133,039
% of Float8.1%
C-Suite Filings1
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Ledbetter Terry Lee Executive Chairman -$126,980.04 1 1 sell

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-03-20 Ledbetter Terry Lee Executive Chairman -$126,980.04 Transaction at $9.96, now +19.7%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Kestrel Group, Ltd. (KG) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for KG on Trend Edge →