GRPN — Groupon Inc

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates GRPN Bullish with a Setup Score of 0, net conviction 27, actionability 0. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score0
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction27
Actionability0 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Groupon Inc

Groupon, Inc. operates a marketplace that connects consumers to merchants by offering goods and services at a discount in North America and international. It provides deals in various categories, including beauty and wellness, food and drink, home and automotive services, and online services, as well as various types of experiences and services; and discounted and market rates for hotels, airfare, and package deals, as well as deals on various pr… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$26.05
Market Cap$1.01B
Float17.7M
Shares Outstanding38.0M
P/E (Forward)147.06
Price/Sales (TTM)2.03
vs. Analyst Target+1.1% to analyst PT
Profit Margin-20.78%
Operating Margin (TTM)-2.83%
Revenue (TTM)$498M
Earnings Growth (YoY)109.20%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$26.33 (4 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $1.42B -$288M $677M -$173M
2021 $967M $119M $737M $178M
2022 $599M -$238M $523M -$115M
2023 $515M -$55.4M $451M $23.5M
2024 $493M -$59.0M $444M $9.0M
2025 $498M -$83.5M $443M -$12.6M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $126M $20.3M
Sep 2025 $123M -$118M
Dec 2025 $133M $7.3M
Mar 2026 $117M -$12.9M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership20.3%
Institutional Ownership148.1%
Short Float70.3%
% of All Funds Holding1.64%
Number of Funds Holding135

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$19.83Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$16.51Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$19.45Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$14.00Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$17.79Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$19.57Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$15.59Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$20.00 support 1.17x 0 months ago
$14.40 support 1.46x 1 months ago
$10.90 support 1.52x 2 months ago
$11.30 support 1.70x 15 months ago
$9.40 support 1.07x 18 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (59 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -1.46% -0.94% 42.37% 33.74% -36.72%
1 Day -1.12% -2.30% 42.37% 56.66% -44.26%
1 Week 2.36% -2.67% 42.37% 92.41% -54.10%
2 Weeks 3.76% -5.45% 35.59% 113.39% -59.34%
1 Month 4.88% -4.96% 41.38% 109.18% -81.97%

Next earnings: August 5, 2026 (24 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan0.9%46.7%15
Feb0.3%40.0%15
Mar-2.2%33.3%15
Apr-3.1%33.3%15
May9.8%53.3%15
Jun-0.8%46.7%15
Jul-1.5%28.6%14
Aug6.3%50.0%14
Sep-5.3%35.7%14
Oct-6.7%28.6%14
Nov1.9%42.9%14
Dec8.7%80.0%15

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.09% 44.0% 691
Tuesday 0.15% 47.4% 758
Wednesday -0.31% 44.1% 755
Thursday 0.22% 47.2% 741
Friday 0.23% 46.5% 739

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 148.1%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 20.3%

Founder-led management: Eric Lefkofsky (Co-Founder)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings1
Net Value+N/A
Net Shares Change-3,055
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings0
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Bass Robert J -$96,660.2 1 1 sell

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2025-08-13 Bass Robert J -$96,660.2 Transaction at $31.64, now -17.7%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Groupon Inc (GRPN) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for GRPN on Trend Edge →