FLO — Flowers Foods Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates FLO Bearish with a Setup Score of 54, net conviction 56, actionability 52. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score54
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction56
Actionability52 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Flowers Foods Inc

Flowers Foods, Inc. produces and markets packaged bakery food products in the United States. The company's principal products include fresh breads, buns, rolls, snack items, bagels, English muffins, tortillas, baking mixes, and frozen breads and rolls as well as snack items including bars, cakes, cookies, and crackers. The company offers its products under the Nature's Own, DKB, Canyon Bakehouse, Simple Mills, Wonder, and Tastykake brand names. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$8.34
Market Cap$1.71B
Float195.5M
Shares Outstanding212.0M
P/E (Forward)22.88
P/E (TTM)23.09
Price/Sales (TTM)0.32
vs. Analyst Target+7.9% to analyst PT
Profit Margin1.38%
Operating Margin (TTM)8.28%
Revenue (TTM)$5.27B
Earnings Growth (YoY)20.00%
Dividend Rate0.5%
Analyst Target Price$9.00 (8 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $4.39B $152M $2.19B $381M
2021 $4.33B $206M $2.16B $439M
2022 $4.81B $228M $2.30B $470M
2023 $5.09B $123M $2.46B $345M
2024 $5.10B $248M $2.53B $525M
2025 $5.26B $83.8M $2.57B $359M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $1.24B $58.4M
Sep 2025 $1.23B $39.5M
Dec 2025 $1.23B -$67.1M
Mar 2026 $1.57B $42.1M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership8.0%
Institutional Ownership87.3%
Short Float21.6%
% of All Funds Holding4.84%
Number of Funds Holding398

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$7.92Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$9.78Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$13.42Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$19.95Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$9.59Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$13.42Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$18.36Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$9.10 resistance 2.11x 1 months ago
$9.70 resistance 1.48x 3 months ago
$11.40 resistance 1.39x 4 months ago
$11.80 resistance 1.41x 7 months ago
$13.10 resistance 1.20x 8 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (119 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.07% 0.00% 46.22% 8.70% -6.36%
1 Day -0.08% -0.04% 48.74% 13.27% -9.85%
1 Week 1.28% 1.57% 67.23% 16.43% -10.75%
2 Weeks 1.00% 1.26% 63.03% 19.56% -16.12%
1 Month 1.12% 1.03% 58.47% 23.27% -25.81%

Next earnings: August 21, 2026 (39 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan-0.2%50.0%46
Feb1.1%52.2%46
Mar2.6%58.7%46
Apr1.8%59.6%47
May2.0%57.4%47
Jun1.8%51.1%47
Jul-0.5%45.7%46
Aug0.1%45.7%46
Sep0.5%47.8%46
Oct2.3%63.0%46
Nov0.9%45.7%46
Dec1.1%54.3%46

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.03% 45.8% 2206
Tuesday 0.06% 46.0% 2394
Wednesday 0.04% 44.0% 2392
Thursday 0.07% 46.2% 2346
Friday 0.08% 45.9% 2330

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 87.3%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 8.0%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings5
Net Value-$6.2M
Net Shares Change-557,144
% of Float-0.3%
C-Suite Filings4
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
McMullian Ryals Chairman and CEO -$6.2M 2 2 sell
Cox Cindy Chief Human Resources Officer -$54,000 1 1 sell
SCAGLIONE DIEGO ANTHONY Chief Financial Officer +$37,542 1 1 buy
STITH MELVIN T +$4,972.151 1 1 buy

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-06-10 SCAGLIONE DIEGO ANTHONY Chief Financial Officer +$37,542 Transaction at $7.51, now +11.1%
2026-04-02 McMullian Ryals Chairman and CEO -$1.7M Transaction at $8.03, now +3.8%
2025-12-05 STITH MELVIN T +$4,972.151 Transaction at $10.90, now -23.5%
2025-09-26 McMullian Ryals Chairman and CEO -$4.5M Transaction at $12.82, now -35.0%
2025-09-10 Cox Cindy Chief Human Resources Officer -$54,000 Transaction at $15.00, now -44.4%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Flowers Foods Inc (FLO) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for FLO on Trend Edge →