EME — EMCOR Group Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates EME Bullish with a Setup Score of 21, net conviction 32, actionability 14. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score21
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction32
Actionability14 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About EMCOR Group Inc

EMCOR Group, Inc. provides electrical and mechanical construction and facilities, building, and industrial services in the United States and the United Kingdom. It offers design, integration, installation, startup, operation, and maintenance services related to power transmission, distribution, and generation systems; energy solutions; premises electrical and lighting systems; process instrumentation; low-voltage systems; voice and data communica… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$781.78
Market Cap$34.89B
Float43.9M
Shares Outstanding44.4M
P/E (Forward)26.04
P/E (TTM)25.84
Price/Sales (TTM)1.97
vs. Analyst Target+27.9% to analyst PT
Profit Margin7.54%
Operating Margin (TTM)8.73%
Revenue (TTM)$17.75B
Earnings Growth (YoY)30.00%
Dividend Rate1.6%
Analyst Target Price$1000.14 (6 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $8.80B $133M $1.40B $368M
2021 $9.90B $384M $1.50B $648M
2022 $11.08B $406M $1.60B $681M
2023 $12.58B $633M $2.09B $1.01B
2024 $14.57B $1.01B $2.77B $1.51B
2025 $16.99B $1.27B $3.33B $1.99B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $4.30B $302M
Sep 2025 $4.30B $295M
Dec 2025 $4.52B $432M
Mar 2026 $4.63B $305M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.7%
Institutional Ownership96.4%
Short Float2.8%
% of All Funds Holding13.08%
Number of Funds Holding1,075

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$834.21Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$739.58Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$619.70Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$404.50Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$741.64Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$620.07Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$459.11Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$412.00 support 1.05x 13 months ago
$369.00 support 1.33x 14 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (116 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.00% 0.14% 56.03% 4.11% -12.73%
1 Day 0.36% 0.08% 51.72% 7.79% -8.10%
1 Week 1.03% 0.82% 61.21% 15.26% -18.23%
2 Weeks 0.75% 0.97% 53.45% 22.36% -21.42%
1 Month 2.12% 1.89% 60.87% 33.52% -22.39%

Next earnings: July 30, 2026 (18 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan1.4%51.6%31
Feb4.1%71.9%32
Mar0.8%53.1%32
Apr6.4%71.9%32
May2.9%53.1%32
Jun1.3%62.5%32
Jul3.0%64.5%31
Aug-1.9%48.4%31
Sep0.4%48.4%31
Oct2.5%61.3%31
Nov3.8%74.2%31
Dec1.6%54.8%31

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.03% 49.5% 1490
Tuesday 0.14% 50.5% 1626
Wednesday 0.17% 50.6% 1626
Thursday 0.16% 50.1% 1594
Friday 0.03% 47.9% 1586

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 96.4%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.7%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings10
Net Value-$30.2M
Net Shares Change-53,131
% of Float-0.1%
C-Suite Filings5
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Guzzi Anthony Chairman, President and CEO -$26.3M 1 N/A
Schwarzwaelder Steven -$5.0M 1 1 sell
Mauricio Maxine Lum CAO, EVP & General Counsel -$2.5M 1 1 sell
Altmeyer John W -$2.2M 1 1 sell
Reid William P -$1.9M 1 1 sell
Walker-Lee Robin A -$897,316.5 1 1 sell
Lowe Carol P -$802,275 1 1 sell
Lind Robert Peter VP and Controller -$760,508.059 2 2 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-05-04 – 2026-05-13 5 5 -$10.4M 2 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-05-04 Schwarzwaelder Steven -$5.0M Transaction at $895.19, now -12.7%
2026-05-13 Reid William P -$1.9M Transaction at $925.78, now -15.6%
2026-06-18 Lowe Carol P -$802,275 Transaction at $844.50, now -7.4%
2026-05-04 Nalbandian Jason R SVP, CFO, Chief Acct. Officer -$685,144 Transaction at $856.43, now -8.7%
2026-05-04 Lind Robert Peter VP and Controller -$603,632.25 Transaction at $894.27, now -12.6%
2026-05-05 Altmeyer John W -$2.2M Transaction at $895.00, now -12.7%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for EMCOR Group Inc (EME) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for EME on Trend Edge →