CMCL — Caledonia Mining Corporation

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates CMCL Bullish with a Setup Score of 30, net conviction 21, actionability 42. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score30
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction21
Actionability42 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Caledonia Mining Corporation

Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc engages in the exploration, development, and production of gold in Zimbabwe. The company is also involved in the exploration and development of mineral properties for precious metals. It owns a 64% stake in the gold-producing Blanket Mine, 100% stake in the Bilboes Sulphide Project, and the Motapa and Maligreen gold mining claims in Zimbabwe. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$17.76
Market Cap$367M
Float14.5M
Shares Outstanding19.3M
P/E (Forward)6.28
P/E (TTM)5.97
Price/Sales (TTM)1.40
vs. Analyst Target+140.6% to analyst PT
Profit Margin23.77%
Operating Margin (TTM)48.72%
Revenue (TTM)$262M
Earnings Growth (YoY)79.40%
Dividend Rate0.6%
Analyst Target Price$42.73 (2 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $100M $20.8M $46.7M $45.4M
2021 $121M $17.4M $54.1M $44.2M
2022 $142M $11.2M $61.8M $40.3M
2023 $146M -$7.9M $41.5M $25.5M
2024 $183M $17.9M $77.0M $59.7M
2025 $254M $55.2M $137M $126M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $65.3M $20.5M
Sep 2025 $71.4M $15.1M
Dec 2025 $71.0M $10.7M
Mar 2026 $66.4M $15.9M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership15.2%
Institutional Ownership64.1%
Short Float10.8%
% of All Funds Holding1.69%
Number of Funds Holding139

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$21.22Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$25.96Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$21.79Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$15.88Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$25.04Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$21.14Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$16.37Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$36.80 resistance 2.04x 8 months ago
$13.10 support 1.98x 13 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (80 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.33% 0.00% 38.75% 20.00% -16.67%
1 Day 0.95% 0.00% 37.50% 26.67% -10.00%
1 Week 2.58% 0.00% 48.75% 33.33% -18.18%
2 Weeks 2.19% 0.00% 40.00% 50.00% -27.27%
1 Month 1.58% -3.02% 36.25% 64.79% -28.57%

Next earnings: August 10, 2026 (29 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan12.6%50.0%42
Feb11.8%45.2%42
Mar13.5%54.8%42
Apr1.6%33.3%42
May-1.4%31.0%42
Jun0.8%38.1%42
Jul-1.9%41.5%41
Aug-4.5%31.7%41
Sep5.5%46.3%41
Oct-3.2%29.3%41
Nov-2.0%34.1%41
Dec-4.4%28.6%42

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.27% 27.8% 1980
Tuesday 0.54% 28.3% 2151
Wednesday 0.06% 28.1% 2149
Thursday 0.25% 27.7% 2108
Friday 0.43% 29.8% 2096

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 64.1%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 15.2%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings3
Net Value+N/A
Net Shares Change6,750
% of Float0.0%
C-Suite Filings0
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Gapare Victor +$219,725 1 1 buy
Ndlovu July +$28,350 2 1 buy, 1 sell

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-06-15 Gapare Victor +$219,725 Transaction at $18.70, now -5.0%
2026-05-15 Ndlovu July +$372,150 Transaction at $24.81, now -28.4%
2026-05-19 Ndlovu July -$343,800 Transaction at $17.19, now +3.3%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Caledonia Mining Corporation (CMCL) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for CMCL on Trend Edge →