CMCL — Caledonia Mining Corporation

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates CMCL Bearish with a Setup Score of 30, net conviction 26, actionability 34. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score30
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction26
Actionability34 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Caledonia Mining Corporation

Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc engages in the exploration, development, and production of gold in Zimbabwe. The company is also involved in the exploration and development of mineral properties for precious metals. It owns a 64% stake in the gold-producing Blanket Mine, 100% stake in the Bilboes Sulphide Project, and the Motapa and Maligreen gold mining claims in Zimbabwe. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$25.29
Market Cap$482M
Float13.9M
Shares Outstanding19.3M
P/E (Forward)7.62
P/E (TTM)7.14
Price/Sales (TTM)1.77
vs. Analyst Target+69.0% to analyst PT
Profit Margin24.09%
Operating Margin (TTM)61.01%
Revenue (TTM)$272M
Earnings Growth (YoY)28.30%
Dividend Rate0.6%
Analyst Target Price$42.73 (2 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $100M $20.8M $46.7M $45.4M
2021 $121M $17.4M $54.1M $44.2M
2022 $142M $11.2M $61.8M $40.3M
2023 $146M -$7.9M $41.5M $25.5M
2024 $183M $17.9M $77.0M $59.7M
2025 $254M $55.2M $137M $126M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $71.4M $15.1M
Dec 2025 $71.0M $10.7M
Mar 2026 $66.4M $15.9M
Jun 2026 $72.0M $23.8M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership15.3%
Institutional Ownership65.0%
Short Float12.2%
% of All Funds Holding1.52%
Number of Funds Holding134

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$20.60Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$24.39Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$22.81Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$16.27Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$24.82Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$21.97Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$16.66Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$36.80 resistance 2.04x 9 months ago
$13.10 support 1.98x 14 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (81 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.33% 0.00% 38.27% 20.00% -16.67%
1 Day 0.94% 0.00% 38.27% 26.67% -10.00%
1 Week 2.56% 0.00% 49.38% 33.33% -18.18%
2 Weeks 2.30% 0.00% 40.74% 50.00% -27.27%
1 Month 1.58% -3.02% 36.25% 64.79% -28.57%

Next earnings: October 29, 2026 (63 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan12.6%50.0%42
Feb11.8%45.2%42
Mar13.5%54.8%42
Apr1.6%33.3%42
May-1.4%31.0%42
Jun0.8%38.1%42
Jul-2.0%40.5%42
Aug-4.5%31.7%41
Sep5.5%46.3%41
Oct-3.2%29.3%41
Nov-2.0%34.1%41
Dec-4.4%28.6%42

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.27% 28.0% 1987
Tuesday 0.54% 28.3% 2158
Wednesday 0.07% 28.2% 2156
Thursday 0.25% 27.8% 2115
Friday 0.43% 29.8% 2103

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 65.0%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 15.3%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings4
Net Value+N/A
Net Shares Change28,150
% of Float0.2%
C-Suite Filings0
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Ndlovu July +$521,192 3 2 buy, 1 sell
Gapare Victor +$219,725 1 1 buy

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-08-17 Ndlovu July +$492,842 Transaction at $23.03, now +9.8%
2026-06-15 Gapare Victor +$219,725 Transaction at $18.70, now +35.2%
2026-05-15 Ndlovu July +$372,150 Transaction at $24.81, now +1.9%
2026-05-19 Ndlovu July -$343,800 Transaction at $17.19, now +47.1%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Caledonia Mining Corporation (CMCL) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for CMCL on Trend Edge →