BBAI — BigBearai Holdings Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About BigBearai Holdings Inc

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. provides artificial intelligence-powered decision intelligence solutions for national security, supply chain management, and digital identity markets. It offers supply chain and logistics solutions, such as Data Conflation at Scale, which offers a view of operations enabling real-time tracking of inventory and facilitating predictive analytics to optimize functions, including routes and delivery times; Discrete Event Sim… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$4.37
Market Cap$1.96B
Float475.7M
Shares Outstanding478.9M
Price/Sales (TTM)15.40
vs. Analyst Target+22.0% to analyst PT
Profit Margin-226.69%
Operating Margin (TTM)-66.90%
Revenue (TTM)$127M
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$5.33 (4 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $91.3M -$2.5M $21.7M $6.6M
2021 $146M -$124M $34.1M -$71.2M
2022 $155M -$111M $43.0M -$48.2M
2023 $155M -$70.7M $40.6M -$22.3M
2024 $158M -$296M $45.2M -$258M
2025 $128M -$294M $28.5M -$261M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $32.5M -$229M
Sep 2025 $33.1M $2.5M
Dec 2025 $27.3M -$5.8M
Mar 2026 $34.4M -$56.8M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.7%
Institutional Ownership42.2%
Short Float29.6%

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$3.85Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$5.23Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$4.89Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$3.05Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$5.11Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$4.62Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$3.29Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$2.40 support 4.78x 16 months ago
$1.70 support 1.42x 17 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (21 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -6.23% -5.94% 28.57% 21.89% -31.59%
1 Day -8.95% -7.32% 23.81% 6.13% -31.65%
1 Week -9.08% -7.77% 19.05% 23.72% -36.50%
2 Weeks -10.11% -3.41% 33.33% 18.75% -49.27%
1 Month -2.30% -5.58% 40.00% 107.95% -52.66%

Next earnings: July 24, 2026 (56 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

Insufficient historical data for monthly seasonality analysis (requires 7+ years of data).

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.98% 50.2% 239
Tuesday -0.42% 37.3% 268
Wednesday -0.01% 46.0% 265
Thursday 0.77% 40.7% 258
Friday 0.23% 44.1% 261

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 42.2%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.7%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings9
Net Value-$362,923.5
Net Shares Change-240,980
% of Float-0.1%
C-Suite Filings4
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
HAYES DOROTHY D -$438,005 4 4 sell
Braden Pamela Joyce -$320,000 1 1 sell
Peffer Julie Chief Financial Officer -$220,235 1 1 sell
Ricker Sean Raymond Chief Financial Officer -$142,688.5 3 3 sell

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-05-26 Ricker Sean Raymond Chief Financial Officer -$43,300 Transaction at $4.33, now +0.9%
2026-05-08 HAYES DOROTHY D -$61,575 Transaction at $4.11, now +6.5%
2026-03-16 Braden Pamela Joyce -$320,000 Transaction at $4.00, now +9.3%
2026-03-06 HAYES DOROTHY D -$67,660 Transaction at $3.98, now +9.8%
2025-12-08 Ricker Sean Raymond Chief Financial Officer -$35,295.5 Transaction at $7.06, now -38.1%
2025-05-28 Peffer Julie Chief Financial Officer -$220,235 Transaction at $4.40, now -0.8%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for BigBearai Holdings Inc (BBAI) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for BBAI on Trend Edge →