AVB — AvalonBay Communities Inc

✨ Hidden Gem

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About AvalonBay Communities Inc

AvalonBay Communities, Inc., a member of the S&P 500, is an equity REIT. The firm develops, redevelops, acquires and manages communities in leading metropolitan areas in New England, the New York/New Jersey Metro area, the Mid-Atlantic, the Pacific Northwest, and Northern and Southern California, as well as in the Company's expansion regions of Raleigh-Durham and Charlotte, North Carolina, Southeast Florida, Dallas and Austin, Texas, and Denver, … Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$186.23
Market Cap$26.12B
Float130.2M
Shares Outstanding141.9M
P/E (Forward)41.32
P/E (TTM)22.84
Price/Sales (TTM)8.54
vs. Analyst Target+4.4% to analyst PT
Profit Margin37.27%
Operating Margin (TTM)29.32%
Revenue (TTM)$3.06B
Earnings Growth (YoY)40.30%
Dividend Rate7.1%
Analyst Target Price$194.50 (24 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $2.30B $828M $1.48B $1.75B
2021 $2.29B $1.00B $1.44B $1.99B
2022 $2.59B $1.14B $1.67B $2.20B
2023 $2.77B $929M $1.78B $1.96B
2024 $2.91B $1.08B $1.84B $2.16B
2025 $3.04B $1.05B $2.04B $2.23B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $760M $269M
Sep 2025 $765M $381M
Dec 2025 $768M $166M
Mar 2026 $770M $326M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.4%
Institutional Ownership98.9%
Short Float3.4%
% of All Funds Holding8.48%
Number of Funds Holding697

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$176.31Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$180.24Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$195.02Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$190.64Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$181.37Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$197.97Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$192.51Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$192.00 resistance 1.06x 6 months ago
$203.00 resistance 1.01x 9 months ago
$226.00 resistance 1.12x 13 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (113 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.16% 0.00% 43.36% 2.79% -4.72%
1 Day -0.21% -0.20% 46.02% 7.54% -5.02%
1 Week -0.05% 0.34% 55.75% 19.76% -11.30%
2 Weeks 0.36% 0.73% 61.95% 24.40% -21.96%
1 Month 1.54% 1.31% 58.04% 24.35% -13.33%

Next earnings: July 17, 2026 (50 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan-0.4%37.5%32
Feb-0.9%37.5%32
Mar1.4%62.5%32
Apr2.6%57.6%33
May1.5%68.8%32
Jun0.4%65.6%32
Jul2.7%68.8%32
Aug0.8%59.4%32
Sep-0.7%43.8%32
Oct-1.5%37.5%32
Nov1.7%65.6%32
Dec1.7%50.0%32

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.02% 49.6% 1523
Tuesday 0.13% 51.0% 1665
Wednesday 0.01% 48.6% 1662
Thursday -0.02% 48.8% 1630
Friday 0.11% 52.3% 1624

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 98.9%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.4%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings4
Net Value-$2.5M
Net Shares Change-12,245
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings4
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
O'Shea Kevin P. Chief Financial Officer -$1.2M 1 1 sell
SCHULMAN EDWARD M EVP-General Counsel -$1.2M 1 1 sell
Willson Sean Thomas Senior Vice President -$55,287.75 2 2 sell

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2025-12-03 Willson Sean Thomas Senior Vice President -$27,039.75 Transaction at $180.26, now +3.3%
2025-06-17 SCHULMAN EDWARD M EVP-General Counsel -$1.2M Transaction at $205.67, now -9.5%
2025-06-17 O'Shea Kevin P. Chief Financial Officer -$1.2M Transaction at $207.57, now -10.3%
2025-08-11 Willson Sean Thomas Senior Vice President -$28,248 Transaction at $188.32, now -1.1%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for AVB on Trend Edge →