AKBA — Akebia Ther

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About Akebia Ther

Akebia Therapeutics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of therapeutics for patients with kidney diseases. Its product portfolio includes Vafseo (vadadustat), an oral hypoxia-inducible factor prolyl hydroxylase, for the treatment of anemia due to chronic kidney disease (CKD) in dialysis-dependent (DD) and non-dialysis dependent (NDD) patients; and Auryxia, a ferric citrate that is used to control t… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$1.03
Market Cap$274M
Float262.3M
Shares Outstanding268.3M
P/E (Forward)28.74
Price/Sales (TTM)1.18
vs. Analyst Target+307.8% to analyst PT
Profit Margin-8.83%
Operating Margin (TTM)-2.76%
Revenue (TTM)$232M
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$4.20 (4 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $295M -$350M -$601,000 -$343M
2021 $214M -$245M $60.2M -$227M
2022 $292M -$94.2M $270M $3.1M
2023 $195M -$51.9M $120M -$8.3M
2024 $160M -$69.4M $97.0M -$13.7M
2025 $236M -$5.3M $197M $21.7M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $62.5M $247,000
Sep 2025 $58.8M $540,000
Dec 2025 $57.6M -$12.2M
Mar 2026 $53.5M -$9.1M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership4.0%
Institutional Ownership41.4%
Short Float10.5%
% of All Funds Holding1.91%
Number of Funds Holding157

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$1.26Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$1.77Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$2.17Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$1.49Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$1.78Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$2.11Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$1.66Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$1.40 resistance 1.36x 0 months ago
$2.20 resistance 1.07x 5 months ago
$2.70 resistance 1.14x 6 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (49 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -1.05% -0.84% 32.65% 10.14% -8.77%
1 Day -0.38% -1.69% 30.61% 33.73% -15.93%
1 Week -0.24% -0.94% 44.90% 36.28% -44.82%
2 Weeks 1.40% 1.83% 53.06% 66.67% -32.73%
1 Month 0.61% -0.84% 47.92% 95.80% -76.29%

Next earnings: July 26, 2026 (58 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan0.7%41.7%12
Feb5.0%41.7%12
Mar-6.4%50.0%12
Apr2.0%46.2%13
May4.3%58.3%12
Jun5.5%66.7%12
Jul4.1%50.0%12
Aug-3.6%33.3%12
Sep-5.5%33.3%12
Oct-12.0%8.3%12
Nov13.2%66.7%12
Dec8.0%50.0%12

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.05% 44.4% 574
Tuesday 0.18% 46.7% 632
Wednesday 0.30% 51.0% 628
Thursday -0.57% 43.7% 615
Friday 0.28% 49.5% 614

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 41.4%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 4.0%

Founder-led management: John P. Butler (Chief Executive Officer, President & Director)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings10
Net Value-$1.0M
Net Shares Change-458,167
% of Float-0.2%
C-Suite Filings10
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Butler John P. CEO and President -$387,826.45 2 1 buy
Ostrowski Erik SVP, CFO, CBO and Treasurer -$200,204.27 2 N/A
Malabre Richard C SVP, Chief Accounting Officer -$150,857.38 3 N/A
Grund Nicholas Chief Commercial Officer -$117,912.31 1 N/A
Rucci Carolyn M. SVP, Chief Legal Officer -$96,983.08 1 N/A
Burke Steven Keith SVP, Chief Medical Officer -$94,044.62 1 N/A

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-02-04 – 2026-02-04 6 6 -$900,774.21 6 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-03-05 Butler John P. CEO and President +$86,587.5 Transaction at $1.25, now -17.6%
2026-02-04 Rucci Carolyn M. SVP, Chief Legal Officer -$96,983.08 Transaction at $1.39, now -25.9%
2026-02-04 Malabre Richard C SVP, Chief Accounting Officer -$68,838.36 Transaction at $1.39, now -25.9%
2026-02-04 Grund Nicholas Chief Commercial Officer -$117,912.31 Transaction at $1.39, now -25.9%
2026-02-04 Burke Steven Keith SVP, Chief Medical Officer -$94,044.62 Transaction at $1.39, now -25.9%
2025-07-01 Ostrowski Erik SVP, CFO, CBO and Treasurer -$151,622.38 Transaction at $3.67, now -71.9%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Akebia Ther (AKBA) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for AKBA on Trend Edge →