AJG — Arthur J Gallagher & Co

✨ Hidden Gem

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About Arthur J Gallagher & Co

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance and reinsurance brokerage, consulting, and third-party property/casualty claims settlement and administration services to entities and individuals worldwide. The company operates in Brokerage and Risk Management segments. Its Brokerage segment offers retail and wholesale insurance and reinsurance brokerage services; assists retail brokers and other non-affiliated broker… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$202.85
Market Cap$53.29B
Float254.1M
Shares Outstanding256.9M
P/E (Forward)15.22
P/E (TTM)32.87
Price/Sales (TTM)3.75
vs. Analyst Target+31.7% to analyst PT
Profit Margin11.35%
Operating Margin (TTM)28.40%
Revenue (TTM)$14.20B
Earnings Growth (YoY)16.20%
Dividend Rate2.8%
Analyst Target Price$267.11 (22 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $7.00B $819M $2.50B $1.56B
2021 $8.21B $907M $2.98B $2.04B
2022 $8.55B $1.11B $3.60B $2.35B
2023 $10.07B $970M $4.25B $2.18B
2024 $11.55B $1.46B $4.88B $3.10B
2025 $13.94B $1.49B $7.63B $3.66B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $3.22B $366M
Sep 2025 $3.37B $273M
Dec 2025 $3.63B $151M
Mar 2026 $4.76B $822M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.9%
Institutional Ownership94.3%
Short Float2.4%
% of All Funds Holding14.30%
Number of Funds Holding1,175

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$208.98Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$246.51Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$280.29Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$248.62Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$247.18Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$280.47Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$258.24Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$250.00 resistance 1.67x 2 months ago
$307.00 resistance 1.18x 6 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (121 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.12% 0.00% 46.28% 15.49% -11.66%
1 Day 0.33% 0.42% 52.89% 17.85% -22.35%
1 Week 0.95% 0.76% 57.85% 18.57% -24.28%
2 Weeks 1.35% 0.98% 58.68% 21.26% -28.79%
1 Month 1.82% 2.46% 63.33% 24.78% -34.81%

Next earnings: July 19, 2026 (52 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan-1.2%45.2%42
Feb2.0%69.0%42
Mar0.9%50.0%42
Apr0.8%47.6%42
May1.6%61.0%41
Jun0.3%46.3%41
Jul1.8%61.9%42
Aug1.5%59.5%42
Sep1.6%59.5%42
Oct1.3%54.8%42
Nov2.8%69.0%42
Dec0.8%61.9%42

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.02% 45.8% 1995
Tuesday 0.08% 47.9% 2167
Wednesday 0.08% 48.1% 2163
Thursday 0.07% 47.6% 2124
Friday 0.07% 47.4% 2114

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 94.3%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.9%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings14
Net Value-$19.2M
Net Shares Change-22,254
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings14
Clusters Detected2

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Hudson Scott R Vice President -$3.8M 2 2 sell
GALLAGHER J PATRICK JR CEO -$2.8M 1 1 sell
Bay Walter D. General Counsel -$2.8M 1 1 sell
CARY RICHARD C Controller, CAO -$1.6M 1 1 sell
Mead Christopher E VICE PRESIDENT -$1.3M 2 2 sell
HOWELL DOUGLAS K VP and Chief Financial Officer -$1.3M 1 1 sell
Pesch Michael Robert Vice President +$1.0M 2 2 buy

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-12-23 – 2025-12-29 3 3 -$4.8M 3 C-suite
2026-03-04 – 2026-03-09 3 3 -$4.0M 3 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-03-04 GALLAGHER J PATRICK JR CEO -$2.8M Transaction at $154.95, now +30.9%
2026-03-09 Mead Christopher E VICE PRESIDENT -$590,112 Transaction at $153.35, now +32.3%
2026-03-09 Hudson Scott R Vice President -$562,324 Transaction at $153.58, now +32.1%
2025-11-03 Pesch Michael Robert Vice President +$988,488.4 Transaction at $247.12, now -17.9%
2025-06-20 Pesch Michael Robert President +$18,783.83 Transaction at $318.37, now -36.3%
2025-12-29 HOWELL DOUGLAS K VP and Chief Financial Officer -$1.3M Transaction at $258.05, now -21.4%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for AJG on Trend Edge →